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Displaying results 1 to 15 of 15.

  1. Statistics and common sense
    Author: Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Magnus, Jan R.; Yoo, Donghoon
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey... more

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    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why some probabilistic and statistical questions that baffled great minds a few hundred years are now easy, while other (relatively straightforward) questions are not only difficult but even counter-intuitive.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248788
    Series: Array ; TI 2021, 106
    Subjects: probability; statistical methods; experiment; common knowledge
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  2. Estimating the mortgage default probability in Cyprus
    evidence using micro data
    Author: Antoniou, Savvas; Evangelou, Ioanna; Kallenos, Theodosis; Michail, Nektarios
    Published: June 2022
    Publisher:  Central Bank of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper series / Central Bank of Cyprus ; 2022, 1
    Subjects: Eurosystem HFCS; survey; defaults; probability; households
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  3. The Natural Laws of Plot
    How Things Happen in Realist Novels
    Author: Yi, Yunsŏn
    Published: [2022]; ©2022
    Publisher:  University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia

    Is plot a line, an arc, or a shape? None of these. Rather than thinking of plot as a sequence of events or actions put into place solely through human agency against the backdrop of setting, this book questions why we should distinguish between plot... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Is plot a line, an arc, or a shape? None of these. Rather than thinking of plot as a sequence of events or actions put into place solely through human agency against the backdrop of setting, this book questions why we should distinguish between plot and setting—and indeed, whether we can make such a distinction. After all, plot, Yoon Sun Lee contends, cannot be disentangled from the material setting in which it takes place.In The Natural Laws of Plot, Lee connects the history of the novel and the history of science to show how plot in the realist novel is given shape by the characteristics of the physical world—and how in turn, plot serves as the avenue through which the realist novel participates in the same lines of inquiry about the world as pursued by the natural and physical sciences. Lee argues that the novel emerges and evolves in tandem with the development of scientific practices and concepts in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe to investigate the idea of a unified and objective world. Drawing on readings from Defoe, Austen, Scott, and many others, Lee demonstrates how bodies, human and non-human, behave according to laws that are built into worlds by plot, and how they are subject to causes and consequences that can occur independently of individual action, social forces, or metaphysical destiny. This interest in representing and exploring how things happen sets the novel apart from other literary genres, and makes the history of science integral to the understanding of the history and theory of the novel, and of narrative.Plot, Lee shows us, is immersive and powerful, because it satisfies our wish to know how things happen in a coherent, objective, and possibly real world

     
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  4. Weighing evidence in language and literature
    a statistical approach
    Author: Brainerd, Barron
    Published: [1974]; ©1974
    Publisher:  University of Toronto Press, Toronto

    In recent years, there has been a tremendous development in the area of quantitative and statistical analysis of linguistic and literary data, generated, no doubt, by extensive advances in computer technology and their relatively easy availability to... more

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    In recent years, there has been a tremendous development in the area of quantitative and statistical analysis of linguistic and literary data, generated, no doubt, by extensive advances in computer technology and their relatively easy availability to scholars. However, except for a few rather specialized examples, there has been no truly introductory text in statistics and quantitative analysis devoted to the needs of language scholars. This work was written especially to fill the gap. It introduces a mathematically naïve reader to those statistical tools which are applicable in modern quantitative text and language analysis, and does this in terms of simple examples dealing exclusively with language and literature. Exercises are included throughout

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781442632394; 1442632399; 9781442650770; 144265077X; 1442652225; 9781442652224
    Series: Mathematical expositions ; no. 19
    Subjects: Philology; Probabilities; Philologie - Méthodes statistiques; Probabilités; probability; LANGUAGE ARTS & DISCIPLINES - Linguistics - Historical & Comparative; Philology - Statistical methods
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations
    Notes:

    Includes bibliographical references (pages 269-272) and index

    Mathematical preliminaries -- Reduction of numerical data -- Introduction to probability -- Random variables --Estimation -- Hypothesis testing -- Some more extended studies.
  5. Statistics and common sense
    Author: Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Magnus, Jan R.; Yoo, Donghoon
    Published: November 2021
    Publisher:  The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey... more

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    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why some probabilistic and statistical questions that baffled great minds a few hundred years are now easy, while other (relatively straightforward) questions are not only difficult but even counter-intuitive.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248609
    Series: Discussion paper / The Institute of Social and Economic Research ; no. 1150
    Subjects: probability; statistical methods; experiment; common knowledge
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten)
  6. The Things Things Say
    Author: Lamb, Jonathan
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  Princeton University Press, Princeton

    One of the new forms of prose fiction that emerged in the eighteenth century was the first-person narrative told by things such as coins, coaches, clothes, animals, or insects. This is an ambitious new account of the context in which these "it... more

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    One of the new forms of prose fiction that emerged in the eighteenth century was the first-person narrative told by things such as coins, coaches, clothes, animals, or insects. This is an ambitious new account of the context in which these "it narratives" became so popular. What does it mean when property declares independence of its owners and begins to move and speak? Jonathan Lamb addresses this and many other questions as he advances a new interpretation of these odd tales, from Defoe, Pope, Swift, Gay, and Sterne, to advertisements, still life paintings, and South Seas journals. Lamb emphasizes the subversive and even nonsensical quality of what things say; their interests are so radically different from ours that we either destroy or worship them. Existing outside systems of exchange and the priorities of civil society, things in fact advertise the dissident obscurity common to slave narratives all the way from Aesop and Phaedrus to Frederick Douglass and Primo Levi, a way of meaning only what is said, never saying what is meant. This is what Defoe's Roxana calls "the Sense of Things," and it is found in sounds, substances, and images rather than conventional signs. This major work illuminates not only "it narratives," but also eighteenth-century literature, the rise of the novel, and the genealogy of the slave narrative. --

     
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  7. A functional representation of potential surprise ordering
    Author: Kwak, Se Ho
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst

    In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace probability. In... more

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    In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by Katzner as Kolmogorov-styled measure defined on the -field over the set of possible states. In this paper, potential surprise function is reconstructed as the functional representation of potential surprise ordering on the space of hypotheses about future called monad.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283947
    Series: Economics Department working paper series ; 2022, 17
    Subjects: Shackle; uncertainty; probability
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The resolution of uncertainty in the value and probability domains
    Author: Lee, Eungik; Ngangoue, Kathleen M.; Schotter, Andrew
    Published: January 2024
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In various frameworks-e.g., Kreps and Porteus (1978)-, preferences over gradual versus one-shot resolution do not depend on whether... more

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    We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In various frameworks-e.g., Kreps and Porteus (1978)-, preferences over gradual versus one-shot resolution do not depend on whether values or probabilities define the main object of uncertainty. In our experiment, however, most subjects resolved uncertain values gradually but uncertain probabilities all at once-both in the gain and loss frames. This systematic discrepancy motivates an explanation for it that we call "process utility", which highlights the importance of information processing when deducing revealed preferences for temporal resolution from choice data.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/295987
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10898 (2024)
    Subjects: resolution of uncertainty; probability; gradual resolution; one-shot resolution; process utility; non-instrumental information; Kreps-Porteus
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Bound to happen
    explanation bias in historical analysis
    Author: Mukharji, Aroop; Zeckhauser, Richard
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Harvard Kennedy School, John F. Kennedy School of Government, [Cambridge, MA]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: Updated November 2019
    Series: Faculty research working paper series / Harvard Kennedy School, John F. Kennedy School of Government ; RWP19, 032 (Updated November 2019)
    Subjects: explanation bias; history; causality; uncertainty; probability; likelihood; analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  10. Estimating the mortgage default probability in Cyprus
    evidence using micro data
    Author: Antoniou, Savvas; Evangelou, Ioanna; Kallenos, Theodosis; Michail, Nektarios
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, [Nicosia]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Economic policy papers ; no. 22, 01 (June 2022)
    Subjects: Eurosystem HFCS; survey; defaults; probability; households
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  11. On measurable uncertainty and the fight for taking uncertainty seriously in economics
    Author: Zappia, Carlo
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 893 (dicembre 2022)
    Subjects: probability; uncertainty; decision-making
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Chance (odd) versus Wahrscheinlichkeit (probability)
    Author: Huschens, Stefan
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, Dresden ; Technische Universität Dresden

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  13. The Natural Laws of Plot
    How Things Happen in Realist Novels
    Author: Yi, Yunsŏn
    Published: [2022]; ©2022
    Publisher:  University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia

    Is plot a line, an arc, or a shape? None of these. Rather than thinking of plot as a sequence of events or actions put into place solely through human agency against the backdrop of setting, this book questions why we should distinguish between plot... more

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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Is plot a line, an arc, or a shape? None of these. Rather than thinking of plot as a sequence of events or actions put into place solely through human agency against the backdrop of setting, this book questions why we should distinguish between plot and setting—and indeed, whether we can make such a distinction. After all, plot, Yoon Sun Lee contends, cannot be disentangled from the material setting in which it takes place.In The Natural Laws of Plot, Lee connects the history of the novel and the history of science to show how plot in the realist novel is given shape by the characteristics of the physical world—and how in turn, plot serves as the avenue through which the realist novel participates in the same lines of inquiry about the world as pursued by the natural and physical sciences. Lee argues that the novel emerges and evolves in tandem with the development of scientific practices and concepts in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe to investigate the idea of a unified and objective world. Drawing on readings from Defoe, Austen, Scott, and many others, Lee demonstrates how bodies, human and non-human, behave according to laws that are built into worlds by plot, and how they are subject to causes and consequences that can occur independently of individual action, social forces, or metaphysical destiny. This interest in representing and exploring how things happen sets the novel apart from other literary genres, and makes the history of science integral to the understanding of the history and theory of the novel, and of narrative.Plot, Lee shows us, is immersive and powerful, because it satisfies our wish to know how things happen in a coherent, objective, and possibly real world

     
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  14. Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making
    the example of the EU Water Framework Directive
    Author: Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
    Published: 2008
    Publisher:  UFZ, Leipzig

    The question of how to deal with uncertainty in environmental decision-making is cur-rently attracting considerable attention on the part of scientists as well as of politicians and those involved in government administration. The existence of... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    eBook
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The question of how to deal with uncertainty in environmental decision-making is cur-rently attracting considerable attention on the part of scientists as well as of politicians and those involved in government administration. The existence of uncertainty becomes particularly apparent in the field of environmental policy because environmental prob-lems are regarded as highly complex and long-term and because far-reaching changes have to be taken into account; moreover, the knowledge available to practitioners and policy makers alike is often fragmentary and not systemised. One key issue arising from this is the challenge to develop scientific decision support methods that are capable of dealing with uncertainty in a systematic and differentiated way, integrating scientific and practical knowledge. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for perceiving and describing uncertainty in environmental decision-making. It is argued that perceiv-ing and describing uncertainty is an important prerequisite for deciding and acting under uncertainty. The conceptual framework consists of a general definition of uncertainty along with five complementary perspectives on the phenomenon, each highlighting one specific aspect of it. By using the conceptual framework, decision-makers are able to re-flect on their knowledge base with regard to its completeness and reliability and to gain a broad picture of uncertainty from various standpoints. The theoretical ideas presented here are based on two empirical studies looking at how uncertainty is dealt with in the implementation process of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The rather ab-stract differentiations are illustrated by a number of examples in the form of interview statements and excerpts from the WFD and the WFD guidance documents Impress, Wateco und Proclan.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/44733
    RVK Categories: AR 22000
    Series: UFZ-Diskussionspapiere ; 8/2008
    Subjects: EU-Umweltpolitik; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Gewässerschutz; EU-Staaten; uncertainty; probability; lack of knowledge; pure ignorance; environ-mental decision-making; EU Water Framework Directive (WFD)
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 30 S., 0,23 MB)
  15. Decidability in complex social choices
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Laboratory of Economics and Management, Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa

    In this paper we develop on a geometric model of social choice among bundles of interdependent elements (objects). Social choice can be seen as a process of search for optima in a complex multi-dimensional space and objects determine a decomposition... more

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    In this paper we develop on a geometric model of social choice among bundles of interdependent elements (objects). Social choice can be seen as a process of search for optima in a complex multi-dimensional space and objects determine a decomposition of such a space into subspaces. We present a series of numerical and probabilistic results which show that such decompositions in objects can greatly increase decidability, as new kind of optima (called local and u-local) are very likely to appear also in cases in which no generalized Condorcet winner exists in the original search space.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/89413
    Series: LEM working paper series ; 2013/21
    Subjects: Social choice; object construction; hyperplane arrangement; probability; tournament; algorithm
    Scope: Online-Ressource (38 S.), graph. Darst.