Skip to main navigation Skip to main content
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Narrow Search
Search narrowed by
Last searches

Results for *

Displaying results 1 to 25 of 70.

  1. Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy
    Author: Fiedler, Salomon; Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Jannsen, Nils; Wolters, Maik H.
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 112
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon or are due to a decline in long-run growth prospects (potential output growth) and equilibrium real interest rates (natural interest rate). Addressing this question is important for central banks for conducting monetary policy and adjusting their strategy. In this paper, the authors address this question based on a review of the literature and an evaluation of the most recent data and discuss implications for monetary policy.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    46
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/193180
    Series: Array ; no. 2019, 17 (February 18, 2019)
    Subjects: Natural interest rate; potential output; output gap; monetary policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen
    Author: Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Carstensen, Kai; Hauber, Philipp; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Rossian, Thies; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel

    Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials und der Produktionslücke einer Volkswirtschaft sind von großer Bedeutung für die Wirtschaftspolitik. Sie spielen eine wesentliche Rolle für den Europäischen Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt und für die im... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 234
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials und der Produktionslücke einer Volkswirtschaft sind von großer Bedeutung für die Wirtschaftspolitik. Sie spielen eine wesentliche Rolle für den Europäischen Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt und für die im Grundgesetz verankerte Schuldenbremse. In der vorliegenden Studie werden die zugrundeliegenden Modelle und Schätzmethoden basierend auf dem Verfahren der Europäischen Kommission kritisch analysiert und es werden Möglichkeiten zur Verbesserung des Verfahrens aufgezeigt. Measures of potential output and the output gap are of great importance for policy-makers who need to assess the cyclical position of the economy and its productive capacity. They play an essential role in the European Stability and Growth Pact and in the debt cap of the German constitution. This study analyzes the measures of potential output and the output gap derived from the European Commission's estimation approach and suggests methodological improvements.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: German
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783894562861
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/193965
    Series: Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik ; Nr. 19 (Februar 2019)
    Subjects: Produktionspotenzial; Produktionslücke; Konjunktur; Zyklus; Finanzpolitik; Europäische Kommission; Potential output; output gap; business cycle; fiscal policy; European Commission
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 168 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Why is there so much inertia in inflation and output?
    a behavioral explanation
    Author: Ji, Yuemei
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich

    Serial correlation in macroeconomics is pervasive. Macroeconomic modellers find it impossible to model this feature without relying on serially correlated shocks. Using a behavioral macroeconomic model, I show that serial correlation in inflation and... more

    Location:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 63 (7181)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Serial correlation in macroeconomics is pervasive. Macroeconomic modellers find it impossible to model this feature without relying on serially correlated shocks. Using a behavioral macroeconomic model, I show that serial correlation in inflation and output can easily be explained in the context that agents do not have rational expectation. This important feature is missing in the standard New Keynesian rational expectations models. The rational expectation models need serially correlated exogenous shocks to account for the high serial correlation in inflation and output while the behavioral model produces serial correlation in these variables endogenously. I also show that inertia in the beliefs about the future is a strong force in producing the serial correlation in inflation and output.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/185379
    Series: Array ; no. 7181
    Subjects: behavioral macroeconomics; serial correlation; inflation; output gap; inertia in belief; endogenous business cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Tilting at windmills: Bernanke and Blanchard's obsession with the wage-price spiral
    Author: Storm, Servaas
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Institute for New Economic Thinking, New York, NY

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 919
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper / Institute for New Economic Thinking ; no. 220
    Subjects: Inflation; science of monetary policy; output gap; unemployment gap; vacancy ratio; inflation expectations; wage-price spiral; non-linear Phillips curve
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter
    Author: Kamber, Gunes; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin
    Published: January 2017
    Publisher:  School of Economics, the University of New South Wales, [Sydney, NSW, Australia]

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: Second version
    Series: UNSW Business School research paper ; no. 2016, ECON 09A
    Subjects: Beveridge-Nelson decomposition; output gap; signal-to-noise ratio
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Is business cycle asymmetry intrinsic in industrialized economies?
    Author: Morley, James C.; Panovska, Irina B.
    Published: February 2017
    Publisher:  School of Economics, the University of New South Wales, [Sydney, NSW, Australia]

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: Second version
    Series: UNSW Business School research paper ; no. 2016, ECON 12A
    Subjects: output gap; model averaging; Markov switching; business cycle asymmetry; convex Phillips Curve
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. A menu on output gap estimation methods
    Author: Álvarez, Luis J.; Gómez-Loscos, Ana
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Banco de España, Madrid

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1720
    Subjects: output gap; potential output; business cycle; trend output; survey
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. RGAP: output gap estimation in R
    Author: Streicher, Sina
    Published: 2022-06
    Publisher:  KOF, Zurich, Switzerland

    Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 297
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which features a flexible modeling framework for the appropriate bivariate unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include direct access to the AMECO database and automated model selection procedures. Multiple illustrative examples outline data preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 20.500.11850/552089
    hdl: 10419/278153
    Series: KOF working papers ; no. 503 (June 2022)
    Subjects: business cycle; output gap; potential output; state space models; Kalman filter and smoother; Gibbs sampling
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten)
  9. Tracking the German business cycle
    Author: Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 102
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the Germany output gap up to three months prior to a gross domestic product data release. To this end, we elicit a mixed-frequency vector-autoregressive model in the spirit of Berger, Morley, and Wong (forthcoming) who propose to use monthly information to form an expectation about the current-quarter output gap. The mean absolute error of our nowcast is very small (0.25 percentage points) after only one month of observed data. Moreover, we show that international trade and labour market aggregates consistently explain large shares of variation in the German output gap.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/262313
    Series: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2022, 12
    Subjects: output gap; Germany; nowcast; mixed frequency; vector-autoregression
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Robust real-time estimates of the German output gap based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition
    Author: Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 12
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the German output gap up to three months prior to a gross domestic product data release. To this end, we elicit a mixed-frequency vector-autoregressive model in the spirit of Berger, Morley, and Wong (forthcoming) who propose to use monthly information to form an expectation about the current-quarter output gap. The mean absolute error of our nowcast compared to the final estimate is very small (0.28 percentage points) after only one month of observed data. Moreover, we show that business and consumer expectations, international trade and labour market aggregates consistently explain large shares of variation in the German output gap. Finally, our procedure is very reliable, as it implies an output gap that is hardly revised ex post. This is particularly important for policymakers.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299123
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265431
    Series: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2022, 35
    Subjects: output gap; Germany; nowcast; mixed frequency; vector-autoregression
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic
    Author: Morley, James C.; Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego; Sun, Yiqiao; Wong, Benjamin
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 534
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimated output gap lines up well with the CEPR chronology of the business cycle for the euro area and we find that hours worked, more than the unemployment rate, provides the key source of information about labor utilization in the economy, especially in pinning down the depth of the output gap during the COVID-19 recession when the unemployment rate rose only moderately. Our findings suggest that labor market adjustments to the business cycle in the euro area occur more through the intensive, rather than extensive, margin.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289953030
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269123
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2716 (August 2022)
    Subjects: Beveridge-Nelson decomposition; output gap; Bayesian estimation; multivariate information
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Assessing Australian monetary policy in the twenty-first century
    Author: Gross, Isaac; Leigh, Andrew
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model we compare actual monetary policy decisions to a counterfactual in which the cash rate is set according to an optimal simple rule. We find that monetary policy played a crucial role in avoiding a... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 4
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Using the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model we compare actual monetary policy decisions to a counterfactual in which the cash rate is set according to an optimal simple rule. We find that monetary policy played a crucial role in avoiding a potential recession in 2001 and mitigating the downturn in 2008-2009. By contrast we find that the cash rate was too high during 2016-2019, keeping inflation below the Reserve Bank's target band. Optimal monetary policy in 2016-2019 would have involved a substantially lower cash rate and would have produced significantly better employment outcomes.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265782
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15561
    Subjects: optimal monetary policy; unemployment; output gap; inflation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Assessing Australian monetary policy in the twenty-first century
    Author: Gross, Isaac; Leigh, Andrew
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model we compare actual monetary policy decisions to a counterfactual in which the cash rate is set according to an optimal simple rule. We find that monetary policy played a crucial role in avoiding a... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 63
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Using the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model we compare actual monetary policy decisions to a counterfactual in which the cash rate is set according to an optimal simple rule. We find that monetary policy played a crucial role in avoiding a potential recession in 2001 and mitigating the downturn in 2008-2009. By contrast we find that the cash rate was too high during 2016-2019, keeping inflation below the Reserve Bank's target band. Optimal monetary policy in 2016-2019 would have involved a substantially lower cash rate and would have produced significantly better employment outcomes.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265994
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9959 (2022)
    Subjects: optimal monetary policy; unemployment; output gap; inflation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession
    Author: Dovern, Jonas; Zuber, Christopher
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and... more

    Location:
    HeiBIB - Die Heidelberger Universitätsbibliographie
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 63
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP). Initially, trend TFP revisions contribute most to the overall PO revisions while all three components are almost equally important in the longer run. Revisions of the capital stock happen quickly while revisions of trend labor, mainly driven by revisions of the non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU), are made gradually. The relative contributions of the components to overall PO revisions differ systematically across countries. This suggests that heterogeneous policies are needed to push different countries back to their previous growth paths.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201907
    Series: Array ; no. 7681 (May 2019)
    Subjects: potential output; trend; output gap; hysteresis; EC
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Construction of a survey-based measure of output gap
    Author: Benčík, Michal
    Published: April2019
    Publisher:  National Bank of Slovakia, Bratislava

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    Nicht speichern
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NSB Working paper / National Bank of Slovakia ; 2019,3
    Subjects: output gap; survey indicators; principal components; Kalman filter
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Output gaps and cyclical indicators
    Author: Röger, Werner; McMorrow, Kieran; Hristov, Atanas; Vandermeulen, Valerie
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    Access:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 289
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279774416
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 104 (July 2019)
    Subjects: output gap; cyclical indicators; principal component analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The OECD potential output estimation methodology
    Author: Chalaux, Thomas; Guillemette, Yvan
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  OECD, Paris, France

    This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting... more

    Access:
    Resolving-System (lizenzpflichtig)
    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)

    Location:
    Hochschule Aalen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
    Signature:
    Online
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Emden/Leer, Hochschulbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Zeppelin Universität gGmbH, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Furtwangen University. Informatik, Technik, Wirtschaft, Medien. Campus Furtwangen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    eBook OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Max-Planck-Institut für ethnologische Forschung, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften Hamburg, Hochschulinformations- und Bibliotheksservice (HIBS), Fachbibliothek Technik, Wirtschaft, Informatik
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Bibliothek der Hochschule Hannover
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Location:
    Bibliothek im Kurt-Schwitters-Forum
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    e-Book OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Bibliothek LIV HN Sontheim
    Signature:
    OECD E-Book
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Location:
    Bibliothek LIV HN Sontheim
    Signature:
    OECD E-Book
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Location:
    Bibliothek LIV HN Sontheim
    Signature:
    OECD E-Book
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Hildesheim
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Badische Landesbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, KIT-Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Location:
    Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, KIT-Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Location:
    Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, KIT-Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    LZ 152
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Lörrach, Zentralbibliothek
    Signature:
    eBook OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Otto-von-Guericke-Universität, Universitätsbibliothek, Medizinische Zentralbibliothek
    Signature:
    ebook OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mannheim, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    e-Book OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Umwelt Nürtingen-Geislingen, Bibliothek Nürtingen
    Signature:
    eBook OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
    Signature:
    E-Ressource OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, end user receives digital copy

    Location:
    Bibliotheks-und Informationssystem der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (BIS)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Jade Hochschule Wilhelmshaven/Oldenburg/Elsfleth, Campus Oldenburg, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Location:
    Jade Hochschule Wilhelmshaven/Oldenburg/Elsfleth, Campus Elsfleth, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Osnabrück, Bibliothek Campus Westerberg
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
    Signature:
    eBook OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Ravensburg, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschulbibliothek Reutlingen (Lernzentrum)
    Signature:
    eBook
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Rostock
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft des Saarlandes, Bibliothek / Bereich Goebenstraße
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Stuttgart, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    eBook OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Stuttgart
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek der Eberhard Karls Universität
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Vechta
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book OECD
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Jade Hochschule Wilhelmshaven/Oldenburg/Elsfleth, Campus Wilhelmshaven, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: OECD Economics Department working papers ; no. 1563
    Subjects: Economics; Potential output; potential growth; labour efficiency; output gap; NAIRU; capital stock
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Output gap, monetary policy trade-offs, and financial frictions
    Author: Furlanetto, Francesco; Gelain, Paolo; Taheri Sanjani, Marzie
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 36
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 05 (February 2020)
    Subjects: Financial frictions; output gap; monetary policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Estimates of r* consistent with a supply-side structure and a monetary policy rule for the U.S. economy
    Author: González-Astudillo, Manuel; Laforte, Jean-Philippe
    Published: September 18, 2020
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 412
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2020, 085
    Subjects: natural rate of interest; natural unemployment rate; output gap; shadow interest rate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Semi-structural VAR and unobserved components models to estimate finance-neutral output gap
    Author: Kátay, Gábor; Kerdelhué, Lisa; Lequien, Matthieu
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 628
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural unobserved components model. To complement these models, a semi-structural vector autoregression model is proposed in which only supply shocks are identified. The accuracy of the output gap estimates is assessed based on their performance in predicting recessions. The models with financial variables generally produce more accurate output gap estimates at the expense of increased real-time volatility. While the extended Hodrick-Prescott filter is particularly appealing for its real-time stability, it lags behind the two semi-structural models in terms of forecasting performance. The vector autoregression model augmented with financial variables features the best in-sample forecasting performance, and it has similar real-time prediction capabilities to the semi-structural unobserved components model. Overall, financial cycles appear to be relevant in Japan, Spain, the UK, and - to a lesser extent - in the US and in France, while they are relatively muted in Canada, Germany, and Italy.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789276250821
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249362
    Series: JRC working papers in economics and finance ; 2020, 11
    Subjects: unobserved components model; semi-structural VAR; output gap; financial cycle; sustainable growth; credit; house prices; advanced economies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?
    Author: Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James C.
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Institute of Economic Research, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 787
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion paper series / The Institute of Economic Research, Korea University ; no. 20, 01 (April 6, 2020)
    Subjects: Secular stagnation; Great Recession; output gap; trend growth; Markov switching; structural breaks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  22. Estimating optimal inflation rate in Saudi Arabia
    using dynamic threshold regression model
    Author: Alsabban, Soleman; Alnuwaiser, Sarah N.
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  Saudi Central Bank, [Riadh]

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Fachinformationsverbund Internationale Beziehungen und Länderkunde
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    ZSS 58
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: SAMA working paper ; WP 16 (21)
    Subjects: Inflation; Produktion; Optimierung; Korrelation; Statistische Analyse; Optimal Inflation rate; output gap; threshold regression model
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (19 Seiten), Tabellen, Diagramme
    Notes:

    Literaturverzeichnis
  23. Nowcasting the output gap
    Author: Berger, Tino; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin
    Published: August 20, 2020
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VSP 1716
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2020, 78 (August 2020)
    Subjects: Nowcasting; output gap; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Assessment of the nature of the pandemic shock: implications for monetary policy
    Author: Babeckaja-Kucharcǔk, Oksana A.; Brůha, Jan; Král, Petr; Motl, Martin; Tonner, Jaromír
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Czech National Bank, Economic Research Division, Praha

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 561
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Research and policy notes / Czech National Bank ; 2022,1
    Subjects: Coronavirus pandemic; demand and supply shocks; inflation; monetary policy; output gap
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?
    Author: Ostapenko, Nataliia
    Published: October 2022
    Publisher:  National Bank of Slovakia, Bratislava

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    Nicht speichern
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NSB Working paper / National Bank of Slovakia ; 2022,4
    Subjects: output gap; inflation; stability; forecasting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen