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Displaying results 1 to 15 of 15.

  1. Will the (German) NAIRU please stand up?
    Author: Franz, Wolfgang
    Published: 2003
    Publisher:  ZEW, Mannheim

    This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical... more

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve (e.g. in times of low in ation), the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the (mis-)measurement of important variables such as in ation expectations, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using direct measures of in ationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order to estimate confidence intervals). However, by any method, simple or complex, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/23971
    Series: ZEW discussion paper ; no. 03-35
    Subjects: Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote; Schätzung; Deutschland; NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; Phillips curve; natural rate; hysteresis; supply shocks; inflation expectations; Kalman filter; bootstrap
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The problems of inflation targeting originate in the monetary theory of Knut Wicksell
    Author: Jonung, Lars
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Lund

    The theoretical foundation of inflation targeting was laid out by the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell (1851-1926) in his groundbreaking treatise, Interest and Prices, published originally in German in 1898. Here he proposed price stability as the... more

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    The theoretical foundation of inflation targeting was laid out by the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell (1851-1926) in his groundbreaking treatise, Interest and Prices, published originally in German in 1898. Here he proposed price stability as the rule for monetary policy. Today, inflation targeting is considered the best-practice approach to monetary policy across the world. It has contributed to stable and low consumer price inflation since the 1990s in many countries. However, inflation targeting has recently been the subject of several objections. Most prominently, the focus on consumer price stability has fostered financial instability, as reflected in the global financial crisis of 2008-09. In addition, the sharp rise in asset prices has led to growing wealth inequality. Why have these problems emerged? This paper provides an answer by comparing Wicksell's theory of price level determination in a pure credit economy, the "cumulative process", to the neo-Wicksellian world of today, characterized by inconvertible fiat money, floating exchange rates, advanced financial systems, unregulated interest rates and well-developed asset markets. In this way, it becomes apparent that the neglect of asset markets and asset prices is the source of the flaws of the present Wicksellian regime of unlimited finance. The shortcomings of the neo-Wicksellian approach can be remedied while remaining within a Wicksellian framework. The key is to combine the nominal anchor of price stability with a reformed financial system that maintains credit stability. The paper uses empirical evidence from Sweden and the United States.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/260347
    Series: Working paper / Department of Economics, Lund University ; 2022, 8
    Subjects: Inflation targeting; price level targeting; natural rate; Knut Wicksell; Milton Friedman; financial crises; credit; asset inflation; central banking
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Hitting the elusive inflation target
    Author: Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias
    Published: September 2019
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    W 1 (26279)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 26279
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Deflation; Niedrigzinspolitik; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Inflationserwartung; Inflationssteuerung; Liquiditätsbeschränkung; USA; De‡flationary bias; asymmetric rules; opportunistic re‡ation; welfare; natural rate; zero lower bound; disanchoring of in‡flation expectations; in‡flation targeting; liquidity traps; macroeconomic uncertainty
    Scope: 39 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  4. News and uncertainty about COVID-19
    survey evidence and short-run economic impact
    Author: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Küster, Keith; Müller, Gernot J.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Universitätsbibliographie Tübingen
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 12 (April 2020)
    Subjects: COVID-19; corona; household expectations; survey; news shocks; uncertainty; natural rate; monetary policy; zero lower bound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Real interest rates and the ECB's monetary policy stance
    Author: Bernardini, Marco; D'Arrigo, Lara; Lin, Alessandro; Tiseno, Andrea
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 857 (June 2024)
    Subjects: monetary policy stance; real interest rates; natural rate; inflation expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Hysteresis in unemployment
    evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate
    Author: Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same... more

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    This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one percentage point deviation of u from u* for one year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in u have larger long-run effects than increases in u.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289949125
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249898
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2625 (December 2021)
    Subjects: hysteresis; unemployment; natural rate; high-pressure economy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics
    Author: Jordà, Òscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2020, 09 (June 2020)
    Subjects: Epidemie; Geschichte; Wirkungsanalyse; Vergleich; pandemics; wars; depressions; real interest rate; natural rate; local projections
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Loose monetary policy and financial instability
    Author: Grimm, Maximilian; Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2023, 06 (February 2023)
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Finanzkrise; Kausalanalyse; financial crises; crisis prediction; monetary policy; natural rate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Unemployment in the European Union
    A dynamic reappraisal
    Author: Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J.
    Published: 2009
    Publisher:  ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel

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  10. Natural rate estimates differ
    by how much?
    Author: Bethencourt, Carlos; Stadtmann, Georg
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics, Frankfurt (Oder)

    We examine the natural rate of unemployment estimates of two international organizations (OECD and European Commission) and various release dates. Since estimates differ to a large extent, empirical research results which use natural rate estimates... more

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    We examine the natural rate of unemployment estimates of two international organizations (OECD and European Commission) and various release dates. Since estimates differ to a large extent, empirical research results which use natural rate estimates will also vary depending on the data source chosen. We highlight the extend of these effects by focusing on Spain, but also present evidence for several other EU-countries.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/192945
    Series: Discussion paper / European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics ; no. 409 (February 2019)
    Subjects: natural rate; real time data; monetary policy; fiscal policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Low frequency drivers of the real interest rate
    a band spectrum regression approach
    Author: Busetti, Fabio; Caivano, Michele
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 450
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1132 (September 2017)
    Subjects: natural rate; secular stagnation; spectral analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. All fluctuations are not created equal
    the differential roles of transitory versus persistent changes in driving historical monetary policy
    Author: Ashley, Richard A.; Tsang, Kwok Ping; Verbrugge, Randal
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 36 (18,14)
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    Format: Online
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 18, 14 (October 2018)
    Subjects: Taylor rule; Great Inflation; intermediate target; natural rate; persistence; dependence
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Hitting the elusive inflation target
    Author: Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, [Chicago, Illinois]

    Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a low nominal interest rates environment. When monetary policy faces the risk of encountering the... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a low nominal interest rates environment. When monetary policy faces the risk of encountering the zero lower bound, in.ation tends to remain persistently below the central bank's target, even if monetary policy is currently not constrained. The deflationary bias increases if macroeconomic uncertainty rises or the natural real interest rate falls. An asymmetric rule according to which the central bank accepts longer periods of in.ation above target corrects the bias and brings inflation back on target. Adopting this asymmetric rule improves welfare and reduces the risk of self-fulfilling deflationary spirals.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/230373
    Series: [Working paper] / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ; WP 2019, 07 (August 2019)
    FRB of Chicago Working Paper ; No. WP-2019-7
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Deflation; Niedrigzinspolitik; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Inflationserwartung; Inflationssteuerung; Liquiditätsbeschränkung; USA; De‡ationary bias; asymmetric rules; opportunistic re‡ation; welfare; natural rate; zero lower bound; disanchoring of in‡flation expectations; in‡flation targeting; liquidity traps; macroeconomic uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Bringing financial stability into monetary policy
    Author: Leeper, Eric M.; Nason, James Michael
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Bloomington, Ind.

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    Series: CAEPR working paper ; 2014,003
    Subjects: Finanzkrise; Geldpolitik; Zins; Geldpolitische Transmission; Neoklassische Synthese; Unvollkommener Markt; Theorie; neo-Wicksellian natural rate rules; Financial frictions; incomplete markets; crises; new Keynesian; natural rate; monetary transmission mechanism
    Scope: Online-Ressource (54 S.), graph. Darst.
  15. Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States
    use flow rates, mind the trend
    Author: Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Ga.

    This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form... more

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    This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the more structural method in Tasci (2012) - to generalize whether data on unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow and outflow rates performs well in the near term. Over longer forecast horizons, Tasci (2012) appears to be a useful framework even though it was designed to be mainly a tool to uncover long-run labor market dynamics such as the "natural" rate. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer-run natural rate. Judgmental forecasts from professional economists tend to be the single best predictor of future unemployment rates. However, combining those guesses with flows-based approaches yields significant gains in forecasting accuracy.

     
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    Language: English
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    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/114487
    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2015-1
    Subjects: unemployment forecasting; natural rate; unemployment flows; labor market search
    Scope: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.