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  1. The macroeconomic impact of foreign exchange intervention
    some cross-country empirical findings
    Author: Jin, Zhongxia; Wang, Haobin; Zhao, Yue
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on... more

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    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on nominal exchange rate flexibility may induce adjustments to the real exchange rate through domestic prices. We find that countries that intervene more heavily in response to external shocks experience greater general and asset price volatility, which is not conducive to countering the impact of external shocks. We show that China's macroeconomic responses to external shocks are broadly consistent with international experiences among intervening countries. The simple methodological framework adopted in this paper is meant to examine a broad set of macroeconomic variables and bears limitations; our findings serve to motivate more structural analysis on FXI's macroeconomic impacts going forward

     
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  2. One shock, many policy responses
    Author: Mano, Rui C.; Sgherri, Silvia
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections... more

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    Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections are used to estimate the entire distribution of future policy responses to portfolio flow shocks for 20 emerging markets and understand the variety of policy choices across the sample. To assuage endogeneity concerns, estimates rely on the fact that global capital flows are exogenous from the viewpoint of any one of these countries. The paper finds that: (i) policy responses to capital flow shocks are heterogeneous across countries, fat-tailed-'extreme' responses tend to be more elastic than 'typical' responses-and asymmetric-'extreme' responses tend to be more elastic with respect to outflows than to inflows; (ii) country characteristics are linked to policy choices-with cross-country differences in forex intervention relating to the size of balance sheet vulnerabilities and the depth of the forex market; (iii) the use of targeted macroprudential policy and capital flows management measures can help 'free the hands' of monetary policy by allowing it to focus more squarely on domestic cyclical developments

     
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  3. Intervention under inflation targeting
    when could it make sense?
    Author: Hofman, David; Chamon, Marcos; Deb, Pragyan; Harjes, Thomas; Rawat, Umang; Yamamoto, Itaru
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We investigate the motives inflation-targeting central banks in emerging markets may have for intervening in foreign exchange markets and evaluate the case for such interventions based on the existing literature. Our findings suggest that the... more

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    We investigate the motives inflation-targeting central banks in emerging markets may have for intervening in foreign exchange markets and evaluate the case for such interventions based on the existing literature. Our findings suggest that the rationale for interventions depends on initial conditions and country-specific circumstances. The case is strongest in the presence of large currency mismatches or underdeveloped markets. While interventions can have benefits in the short-term, sustained over time they could entrench unfavorable initial conditions, though more work is needed to establish this empirically. A first effort to measure the cost of interventions to the credibility of policy frameworks suggests that the negative impact may be smaller than often assumed-at least for the set of more sophisticated inflation-targeting emerging-market central banks considered here

     
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  4. Sterling and the stability of the international monetary system, 1944-1971
    Author: Naef, Alain
    Published: June 2018

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  5. Caught in the crosswinds
    the experiences of selected economies responding to external volatility with multiple policy levers
    Author: Fayad, Ghada; Poirson, Hélène
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used-... more

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    A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used- including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis

     
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  6. The effectiveness of FX interventions: a meta-analysis
    Author: Arango-Lozano, Lucía; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rodríguez-Novoa, Daniela; Villamizar, Mauricio
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Banco de la Republica Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Borradores de economía ; no. 1132 (2020)
    Subjects: foreign exchange intervention; exchange rate; meta-analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The effectiveness of FX interventions
    a meta-analysis
    Author: Arango-Lozano, Lucía; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rodríguez-Novoa, Daniela; Villamizar, Mauricio
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    There is ample empirical literature centering on the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI). Given the mix of objectives and country-heterogeneity, the general lack of consensus thus far is no surprise. We shed light on this debate by... more

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    There is ample empirical literature centering on the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI). Given the mix of objectives and country-heterogeneity, the general lack of consensus thus far is no surprise. We shed light on this debate by conducting the first comprehensive meta-analysis in the FXI literature, with 279 reported effects that stem from 74 distinct empirical studies. We cover estimations conducted in 19 countries across five decades. Overall, our meta-survey reports an average depreciation of domestic currency of 1% and a reduction of exchange rate volatility of 0.6%, in response to a $1 billion US dollar purchase. Results are qualitatively confirmed but smaller in size under fixed and random-effect estimations. When narrowing in on different economic factors, we find that effects are magnified for cases consistent with the monetary trilemma (greater if financial openness and monetary independence are low). Effects are also larger in emerging than advanced economies, when banking crises remain mild, and when interventions are large in size and are announced.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/225024
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1895
    Subjects: foreign exchange intervention; exchange rate; meta-analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The transmission of external shocks in Asia
    country characteristics and policy responses
    Author: Deb, Pragyan; Nadeem, Sanaa; Peiris, Shanaka Jayanath
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use... more

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    Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use of policies, such as the monetary policy interest rate, foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential measures (MPMs), can mitigate the impact of these external shocks. It uses panel quantile regressions on a sample of 14 Asian advanced and emerging economies (AEs and EMs) to assess the impact of financial and real shocks on investment and GDP growth at the median and 5th percentile tail. It finds that external financial shocks tend to have a larger effect on Asian economies than real shocks, and that the main transmission channels through which shocks are propagated are capital flows (particularly via corporate and bank balance sheets) for EMs, and credit for AEs. It also finds evidence that for Asian EMs, FXI may help dampen the capital flows and real exchange rate channels and mitigate financial shocks in the short run, and monetary policy transmission tends to be relatively weak; meanwhile MPMs can help mitigate the credit channel for both AEs and EMs

     
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  9. Bank balance sheets and external shocks in Asia
    the role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs
    Author: Chen, Zefeng; Nadeem, Sanaa; Peiris, Shanaka Jayanath
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate... more

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    In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate these key features and estimates a panel vector autoregression on ten Asian economies to understand the role of the banking sector in transmitting spillovers from the global financial cycle to small open economies. It also evaluates the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and other macroeconomic policies in responding to external financing shocks. External financial shocks affect net external liabilities of banks and the exchange rate, leading to changes in credit supply by banks and investment. For example, a capital outflow shock leads to a deprecation that reduces the net worth and intermediation capacity of banks exposed to foreign currency liabilities. In such cases, the exchange rate acts as shock amplifier and sterilized FXI, often deployed by Asian economies, can help cushion the economy. By contrast, with real shocks, the exchange rate serves as a shock absorber, and any FXI that weakens that function can be costly. We also explore the effectiveness of the monetary policy interest rate, macroprudential policies (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs)

     
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  10. Managing external volatility
    policy frameworks in non-reserve issuing economies
    Author: Poirson, Hélène; Porter, Nathaniel John; Fayad, Ghada; Agur, Itai; Bi, Ran; Chen, Jiaqian; Eugster, Johannes; Laséen, Stefan; Menkulasi, Jeta; Moriyama, Kenji; Rochon, Céline; Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna; Tovar, Camilo Ernesto; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Zdzienicka, Aleksandra
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments.... more

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    Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that in some circumstances managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macro-financial conditions. Effectiveness however does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences

     
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  11. Leaning-against-the-wind intervention and the "carry-trade" view of the cost of reserves
    Author: Levy Yeyati, Eduardo; Gómez, Juan Francisco
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Center for International Development at Harvard University, [Cambridge, MA]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CID faculty working paper ; no. 419 (October 2022)
    Subjects: Exchange rates; foreign exchange intervention; international reserves; self-insurance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Is foreign exchange intervention through derivative instruments effective?
    an analysis of the Peruvian case
    Author: Abanto Salcedo, Flavio
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department, Geneva, Switzerland

    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effectiveness of foreign exchange (FX) intervention in Peru, with emphasis on the intervention carried out through derivative instruments. I use two different but related approaches to estimate the... more

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    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effectiveness of foreign exchange (FX) intervention in Peru, with emphasis on the intervention carried out through derivative instruments. I use two different but related approaches to estimate the impact of these kind of interventions between 2014 and 2023. First, I estimate a proxy SVAR with daily data which uses an instrument constructed with intraday data. Results show that FX interventions have an impact on the level of the exchange rate in the expected direction: an FX sale intervention of between USD 60 and USD 120 million generates an appreciation of between 0.02 and 0.04 percent of the currency in the same day. On the other hand, spot intervention is found to be slightly more effective. The estimations, however, do not provide sufficient evidence to conclude on the impact on the exchange rate volatility in the short run. Second, I estimate event study regressions with intraday data, which allowed to confirm that these interventions have the expected effect after around 10 minutes. However, no evidence of the existence of an information channel is found since the announcement of these interventions does not significantly impact the exchange rate.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    hdl: 10419/302862
    Series: Working paper series / Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department ; no. HEIDWP2024, 17
    Subjects: foreign exchange intervention; currency; derivatives; derivate instruments; Peru; exchange rate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. International capital flow pressures and global factors
    Author: Goldberg, Linda S.; Krogstrup, Signe
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by... more

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    The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment, including for so-called safe-haven currencies, evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countries, risk sensitivities and safe-haven status are associated with selffulfilling exchange rate expectations and carry trade funding currencies. In contrast, association with more traditional macroeconomic country characteristics is weak.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    hdl: 10419/272864
    Series: Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; no. 1051 (February 2023)
    Subjects: exchange market pressure; risk aversion; safe haven; capital flows; exchange rates; foreign exchange intervention; global financial cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Patterns of foreign exchange intervention under inflation targeting
    Author: Adler, Gustavo; Chang, Kyun Suk; Wang, Zijiao
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The paper documents the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) across countries and monetary regimes, with special attention to its use under inflation targeting (IT). We find significant differences between advanced and emerging market... more

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    The paper documents the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) across countries and monetary regimes, with special attention to its use under inflation targeting (IT). We find significant differences between advanced and emerging market economies, with the former group conducting FXI limitedly and broadly symmetrically, while the use of this policy instrument in emerging market countries is pervasive and mostly asymmetric (biased towards purchasing foreign currency, even after taking into account precautionary motives). Within emerging markets, the use of FXI is common both under IT and non-IT regimes. We find no evidence of FXI being used in response to inflation developments, while there is strong evidence that FXI responds to exchange rates, indicating that IT central banks in EMDEs have dual inflation/exchange rate objectives. We also find a higher propensity to overshoot inflation targets in emerging market economies where FXI is more pervasive

     
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  15. A conceptual model for the integrated policy framework
    Author: Basu, Suman; Boz, Emine; Gopinath, Gita; Roch, Francisco; Unsal, D. Filiz
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies... more

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    In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to cope with shocks, such as COVID-19. This paper develops a model of optimal monetary policy, capital controls, foreign exchange intervention, and macroprudential policy. It incorporates many shocks and allows countries to differ across the currency of trade invoicing, degree of currency mismatches, tightness of external and domestic borrowing constraints, and depth of foreign exchange markets. The analysis maps these shocks and country characteristics to optimal policies, and yields several principles. If an additional instrument becomes available, it should not necessarily be deployed because it may not be the right tool to address the imperfection at hand. The use of a new instrument can lead to more or less use of others as instruments interact in non-trivial ways

     
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  16. Global value chains and external adjustment
    do exchange rates still matter?
    Author: Adler, Gustavo; Meleshchuk, Sergii; Osorio Buitron, Carolina
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater integration into international value... more

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    The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater integration into international value chains reduces the exchange rate elasticity of gross trade volumes. This result holds both in the short and medium term, pointing to the rigidity of value chains. At the same time, greater value chain integration is associated with larger gross trade flows, relative to GDP, which tends to amplify the effect of exchange rate movements. Overall, combining these two results suggests that, for most countries, integration into global value chains does not materially alter the working of exchange rates and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility in facilitating external adjustment remain

     
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  17. When is foreign exchange intervention effective? Evidence from 33 countries
    Author: Fratzscher, Marcel; Gloede, Oliver; Menkhoff, Lukas; Sarno, Lucio; Heidland, Tobias
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin

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  18. Managing external volatility
    policy frameworks in non-reserve issuing economies
    Author: Poirson, Hélène; Porter, Nathaniel John; Fayad, Ghada; Agur, Itai; Bi, Ran; Chen, Jiaqian; Eugster, Johannes; Laséen, Stefan; Menkulasi, Jeta; Moriyama, Kenji; Rochon, Céline; Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna; Tovar, Camilo Ernesto; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Zdzienicka, Aleksandra
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments.... more

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    Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that in some circumstances managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macro-financial conditions. Effectiveness however does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences

     
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  19. The transmission of external shocks in Asia
    country characteristics and policy responses
    Author: Deb, Pragyan; Nadeem, Sanaa; Peiris, Shanaka Jayanath
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use... more

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    Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use of policies, such as the monetary policy interest rate, foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential measures (MPMs), can mitigate the impact of these external shocks. It uses panel quantile regressions on a sample of 14 Asian advanced and emerging economies (AEs and EMs) to assess the impact of financial and real shocks on investment and GDP growth at the median and 5th percentile tail. It finds that external financial shocks tend to have a larger effect on Asian economies than real shocks, and that the main transmission channels through which shocks are propagated are capital flows (particularly via corporate and bank balance sheets) for EMs, and credit for AEs. It also finds evidence that for Asian EMs, FXI may help dampen the capital flows and real exchange rate channels and mitigate financial shocks in the short run, and monetary policy transmission tends to be relatively weak; meanwhile MPMs can help mitigate the credit channel for both AEs and EMs

     
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  20. Bank balance sheets and external shocks in Asia
    the role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs
    Author: Chen, Zefeng; Nadeem, Sanaa; Peiris, Shanaka Jayanath
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate... more

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    In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate these key features and estimates a panel vector autoregression on ten Asian economies to understand the role of the banking sector in transmitting spillovers from the global financial cycle to small open economies. It also evaluates the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and other macroeconomic policies in responding to external financing shocks. External financial shocks affect net external liabilities of banks and the exchange rate, leading to changes in credit supply by banks and investment. For example, a capital outflow shock leads to a deprecation that reduces the net worth and intermediation capacity of banks exposed to foreign currency liabilities. In such cases, the exchange rate acts as shock amplifier and sterilized FXI, often deployed by Asian economies, can help cushion the economy. By contrast, with real shocks, the exchange rate serves as a shock absorber, and any FXI that weakens that function can be costly. We also explore the effectiveness of the monetary policy interest rate, macroprudential policies (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs)

     
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  21. Patterns of foreign exchange intervention under inflation targeting
    Author: Adler, Gustavo; Chang, Kyun Suk; Wang, Zijiao
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The paper documents the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) across countries and monetary regimes, with special attention to its use under inflation targeting (IT). We find significant differences between advanced and emerging market... more

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    The paper documents the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) across countries and monetary regimes, with special attention to its use under inflation targeting (IT). We find significant differences between advanced and emerging market economies, with the former group conducting FXI limitedly and broadly symmetrically, while the use of this policy instrument in emerging market countries is pervasive and mostly asymmetric (biased towards purchasing foreign currency, even after taking into account precautionary motives). Within emerging markets, the use of FXI is common both under IT and non-IT regimes. We find no evidence of FXI being used in response to inflation developments, while there is strong evidence that FXI responds to exchange rates, indicating that IT central banks in EMDEs have dual inflation/exchange rate objectives. We also find a higher propensity to overshoot inflation targets in emerging market economies where FXI is more pervasive

     
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  22. A conceptual model for the integrated policy framework
    Author: Basu, Suman; Boz, Emine; Gopinath, Gita; Roch, Francisco; Unsal, D. Filiz
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies... more

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    In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to cope with shocks, such as COVID-19. This paper develops a model of optimal monetary policy, capital controls, foreign exchange intervention, and macroprudential policy. It incorporates many shocks and allows countries to differ across the currency of trade invoicing, degree of currency mismatches, tightness of external and domestic borrowing constraints, and depth of foreign exchange markets. The analysis maps these shocks and country characteristics to optimal policies, and yields several principles. If an additional instrument becomes available, it should not necessarily be deployed because it may not be the right tool to address the imperfection at hand. The use of a new instrument can lead to more or less use of others as instruments interact in non-trivial ways

     
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  23. Caught in the crosswinds
    the experiences of selected economies responding to external volatility with multiple policy levers
    Author: Fayad, Ghada; Poirson, Hélène
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used-... more

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    A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used- including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis

     
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  24. The macroeconomic impact of foreign exchange intervention
    some cross-country empirical findings
    Author: Jin, Zhongxia; Wang, Haobin; Zhao, Yue
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on... more

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    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on nominal exchange rate flexibility may induce adjustments to the real exchange rate through domestic prices. We find that countries that intervene more heavily in response to external shocks experience greater general and asset price volatility, which is not conducive to countering the impact of external shocks. We show that China's macroeconomic responses to external shocks are broadly consistent with international experiences among intervening countries. The simple methodological framework adopted in this paper is meant to examine a broad set of macroeconomic variables and bears limitations; our findings serve to motivate more structural analysis on FXI's macroeconomic impacts going forward

     
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  25. One shock, many policy responses
    Author: Mano, Rui C.; Sgherri, Silvia
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections... more

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    Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections are used to estimate the entire distribution of future policy responses to portfolio flow shocks for 20 emerging markets and understand the variety of policy choices across the sample. To assuage endogeneity concerns, estimates rely on the fact that global capital flows are exogenous from the viewpoint of any one of these countries. The paper finds that: (i) policy responses to capital flow shocks are heterogeneous across countries, fat-tailed-'extreme' responses tend to be more elastic than 'typical' responses-and asymmetric-'extreme' responses tend to be more elastic with respect to outflows than to inflows; (ii) country characteristics are linked to policy choices-with cross-country differences in forex intervention relating to the size of balance sheet vulnerabilities and the depth of the forex market; (iii) the use of targeted macroprudential policy and capital flows management measures can help 'free the hands' of monetary policy by allowing it to focus more squarely on domestic cyclical developments

     
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