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  1. Evaluating medium term forecasting methods & their implications for EU output gap calculations
    Author: McMorrow, Kieran; Röger, Werner; Vandermeulen, Valerie
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This paper sheds light on two specific, but interlinked, questions - firstly, how do the EU's, medium term actual GDP growth rate forecasts compare, in terms of accuracy and biasedness, with those of the EU's Member States, in their annual Stability... more

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    This paper sheds light on two specific, but interlinked, questions - firstly, how do the EU's, medium term actual GDP growth rate forecasts compare, in terms of accuracy and biasedness, with those of the EU's Member States, in their annual Stability and Convergence Programme (SCP) updates; and secondly, should medium term forecasts be allowed to influence the short run output gap and structural balance calculations used in the EU's fiscal surveillance procedures. Regarding the first question, the paper concludes that the EU's medium term forecasts are equally as good, and arguably better, than those of the SCP's both with respect to accuracy and biasedness. Regarding the second question, due to the relatively rapid loss in forecast accuracy as the time horizon lengthens; the paper suggests that using more forecast information should be avoided in the output gap and structural balance calculations. Extending the forecast horizon to be used in the output gap calculations could exacerbate an existing optimistic bias with respect to the supply side health of the EU's economy, thereby enlarging the risk of procyclicality problems, especially in the upswing phase of cycles, where most of the large fiscal policy errors tend to occur.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279649318
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    Series: Array ; 070 (October 2017)
    Subjects: Production function methodology; output gaps; common agricultural policy; market economy; supply and demand; economic forecasting; economic planning; economic statistics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. How demanding and consistent is the 2018 stress test design in comparison to previous exercises?
    banking union scrutiny
    Author: Haselmann, Rainer; Wahrenburg, Mark
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  [SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe], [Frankfurt]

    We provide an assessment of the design and calibration of the 2018 EU-wide stress test. The adverse scenario for the 2018 stress test is more severe than for previous stress tests in terms of the assumed GDP decline in the EU area. However, the test... more

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    We provide an assessment of the design and calibration of the 2018 EU-wide stress test. The adverse scenario for the 2018 stress test is more severe than for previous stress tests in terms of the assumed GDP decline in the EU area. However, the test is less severe in terms of the losses that banks are expected to incur under the scenario. The adverse scenario has a highly asymmetric impact on different European countries, such that countries with a high degree of trade openness are affected considerably more. It seems unlikely that the assumed scenario constitutes the most plausible threat scenario for the EU economy. Since banks use heterogeneous models to forecast the stress scenario impact on loan losses and since the EBA does not publish its own respective benchmark parameters, the public cannot fully assess the true severity of the test in terms of its impact on banks' capital. We argue that both the lack of transparency and the heterogeneity of banks’ practices to forecast stress scenario induced losses considerably weaken the credibility of the stress test and limit its usefulness in supporting market discipline among European banks.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789284631315
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    hdl: 10419/181902
    Series: [SAFE white paper ; no. 54]
    Subjects: economic policy; economic forecasting; banking supervision; banking policy; foreign exchange market; credit institution; financial institution; Banking union; European banks; stress test
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. European economic forecast
    2024, Spring
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The EU economy staged a comeback at the start of the year, following a prolonged period of stagnation. Though the growth rate of 0.3% estimated for the first quarter of 2024 is still below estimated potential, it exceeded expectations. Activity in... more

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    The EU economy staged a comeback at the start of the year, following a prolonged period of stagnation. Though the growth rate of 0.3% estimated for the first quarter of 2024 is still below estimated potential, it exceeded expectations. Activity in the euro area expanded at the same pace, marking the end of the mild recession experienced in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, inflation across the EU cooled further in the first quarter. This Spring Forecast projects GDP growth in 2024 at 1.0% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. This is a slight uptick from the Winter 2024 interim Forecast for the EU, but unchanged for the euro area. EU GDP growth is forecast to improve to 1.6% in 2025, a downward revision of 0.1 pps. from winter. In the euro area, GDP growth in 2025 is projected to be slightly lower, at 1.4% also marginally revised down. Importantly, almost all Member States are expected to return to growth in 2024. With economic expansion in the southern rim of the EU still outpacing growth in north and western Europe, economic convergence within the EU is set to progress further. On the 20th anniversary of the enlargement of the EU towards the east and the south, it is notable that, after almost stalling last year, economic convergence is also set to resume for the newer Member States. It is expected to continue at a sustained pace throughout the forecast horizon and beyond (see Special Issue 4.3.). HICP inflation is projected to continue declining over the forecast horizon. In the EU, it is now expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. In the euro area, it is forecast to fall from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is a downward revision compared to winter for both the EU and the euro area - especially for this year.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268138397
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    Parent title: European economic forecast - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 286 (May 2024)
    Subjects: economic situation; economic policy; euro area; European Union; economic forecasting; economic growth; economic fluctuation; gross domestic product; Russo-Ukrainian issue; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 232 Seiten)
  4. The ... ageing report
    2024, Economic and budgetary projections for the EU member states
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    To assess the long-term sustainability of public finances in the EU Member States, the ECOFIN Council mandated the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to update its comprehensive long-term budgetary projections by the summer of 2024. The update of the... more

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    To assess the long-term sustainability of public finances in the EU Member States, the ECOFIN Council mandated the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to update its comprehensive long-term budgetary projections by the summer of 2024. The update of the Ageing Report, a joint report by the EPC and the European Commission (DG ECFIN), should be based on new population projections by Eurostat. The report is prepared by the EPC's Ageing Working Group (AWG). It was first published in 2006 and has been updated every three years since then. The Ageing Report is a unique exercise in that it provides detailed economic and budgetary projections for the EU Member States and Norway up to 2070 based on common assumptions and methodologies. The report provides a vast set of comparable and internally consistent information for 28 countries. These give insight into the timing of population ageing, its economic implications and the associated budgetary challenges. Such pressures are already manifest in many countries and are expected to accelerate as large cohorts of baby boomers retire, life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates remain low from a historical point of view. Being a joint EPC-Commission product, the Ageing Report provides a shared assessment between the Member States and the Commission on how ageing costs might develop in the future, considering the latest information and legislated reforms. The projections are therefore a cornerstone of various surveillance processes at the EU level. They inform the coordination of economic policies, in particular under the European Semester, the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances and fiscal surveillance under the Stability and Growth Pact.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137802
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    Parent title: The ... ageing report - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 279 (April 2024)
    Subjects: population ageing; demography; population forecast; population growth; economic analysis; economic forecasting; government policy; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 358 Seiten)
  5. Debt sustainability monitor / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    2023
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The EU economy appears set for a delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflation. After subdued growth in 2023, the EU economy has entered 2024 on a weaker footing than previously expected. Already towards the end of 2022, the economic... more

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    The EU economy appears set for a delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflation. After subdued growth in 2023, the EU economy has entered 2024 on a weaker footing than previously expected. Already towards the end of 2022, the economic expansion came to an abrupt end and activity has since been broadly stagnating, against the background of falling household purchasing power, collapsing external demand, forceful monetary tightening and the partial withdrawal of fiscal support in 2023. Economic activity is expected to gradually accelerate in 2024. Headline inflation has declined faster than expected in 2023, largely driven by falling energy prices. As inflation has declined, real wage growth and a resilient labour market should support a pick-up in consumption. Despite falling profit margins, investment should benefit from a gradual easing of credit conditions and the continued implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. According to the Commission's 2024 winter forecast, the EU economy is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2023, 0.9% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025. In the EU, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is projected to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.

     
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    ISBN: 9789268042465
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    Parent title: Debt sustainability monitor / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 271 (March 2024)
    Subjects: sustainable development; sustainable finance; public finance; European Union; financial risk; tax system; inflation; economic policy; ship's passport; community resilience; economic forecasting; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 298 Seiten)
  6. European economic forecast
    2024, Winter
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This Winter interim Forecast lowers the growth outlook for this year and sets inflation on a lower downward path than projected last autumn. Economic activity in 2023 is now estimated to have expanded by only 0.5% in both the EU and the euro area.... more

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    This Winter interim Forecast lowers the growth outlook for this year and sets inflation on a lower downward path than projected last autumn. Economic activity in 2023 is now estimated to have expanded by only 0.5% in both the EU and the euro area. The growth outlook for 2024 is revised down to 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. In 2025, economic activity is still expected to expand by 1.7% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area. EU HICP inflation is forecast to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. In the euro area, it is projected to decelerate from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and to 2.2% in 2025.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042434
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    Parent title: European economic forecast - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 268 (February 2024)
    Subjects: economic situation; economic policy; euro area; European Union; economic forecasting; economic growth; economic fluctuation; gross domestic product; climate change; Palestine question; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten)
  7. The ... ageing report
    2024, Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The forthcoming 2024 Ageing Report will provide long-term projections for public expenditure on pensions, healthcare, long-term care and education in the European Union up to 2070. These budgetary projections build on the macroeconomic assumptions... more

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    The forthcoming 2024 Ageing Report will provide long-term projections for public expenditure on pensions, healthcare, long-term care and education in the European Union up to 2070. These budgetary projections build on the macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies described in this report. The 2024 Ageing Report will be the eighth edition. Publication is scheduled for spring 2024.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042328
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    Parent title: The ... ageing report - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 257 (November 2023)
    Subjects: population forecast; economic forecasting; long-term forecast; population ageing; public finance; labour force; non-working population; pension scheme; health expenditure; unemployment; EU expenditure; macroeconomics; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 224 Seiten)
  8. Alert mechanism report 2024
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) identifies Member States that the Commission considers may be affected by, or may be at risk of being affected by, imbalances, based on an economic reading of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure scoreboard°( 1 ).... more

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    The Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) identifies Member States that the Commission considers may be affected by, or may be at risk of being affected by, imbalances, based on an economic reading of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure scoreboard°( 1 ). The reading considers the outturn data for 2022, which are interpreted in a forward-looking manner, taking into account the development of possible risks based on 2023 in-year economic developments and longer-term forecasts from the Commission 2023 autumn forecast, where relevant. This paper contains the analysis included in the Commission staff working document as well as the content of the accompanying Commission Communication, which together make up the Alert Mechanism Report 2024°(2 ).

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042366
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    Series: Array ; 261 (December 2023)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; economic disparity; economic growth; economic statistics; national accounts; inflation; economic indicator; economic forecasting; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 156 Seiten)
  9. Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    Greece (Autumn 2023), Greece, ...
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The third post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 2 to 5 October 2023. The mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participate on... more

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    The third post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 2 to 5 October 2023. The mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participate on aspects relating to the ESM's Early Warning System, and staff from the International Monetary Fund also participated.

     
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  10. Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    Cyprus (Autumn 2023), Cyprus, ...
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The 15th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place from 25 to 29 September 2023. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated... more

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    The 15th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place from 25 to 29 September 2023. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to the ESM's Early Warning System.

     
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  11. European economic forecast
    2023, Autumn
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    Following a robust post-pandemic expansion in 2021 and 2022, the EU economy has lost momentum. Real GDP contracted very mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022 and barely grew in the first three quarters of this year. A high cost of living took a... more

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    Following a robust post-pandemic expansion in 2021 and 2022, the EU economy has lost momentum. Real GDP contracted very mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022 and barely grew in the first three quarters of this year. A high cost of living took a heavier toll than expected. On the external side, global trade provided little support. Meanwhile, the response of monetary policy to high inflation is working its way through the economy, and fiscal support is partly being phased out. This Autumn Forecast projects GDP growth in 2023 at 0.6% in both the EU and the euro area.

     
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    ISBN: 9789268042335
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    Parent title: European economic forecast - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 258 (November 2023)
    Subjects: economic situation; economic policy; euro area; European Union; economic forecasting; economic growth; economic fluctuation; gross domestic product; Russo-Ukrainian issue; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 224 Seiten)
  12. Report on public finances in EMU
    2022
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This annual report presents a review of key policy developments and analytical findings in the area of public finances. more

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    This annual report presents a review of key policy developments and analytical findings in the area of public finances.

     
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  13. The single market and accountability
    awareness, assessment, and attribution of European internal-market governance in comparative perspective
    Author: Jacobs, Nicholas F.; Parsons, Craig; Moland, Martin
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    How much is the European Single Market accountable to its citizens? A mountain of commentary and scholarship implies the answer, "not much." "You cannot fall in love with the Single Market" is an often-repeated quote from its most famous architect,... more

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    How much is the European Single Market accountable to its citizens? A mountain of commentary and scholarship implies the answer, "not much." "You cannot fall in love with the Single Market" is an often-repeated quote from its most famous architect, Jacques Delors. He meant to underscore the technical, low-salience nature of the regulatory project to ensure the "four freedoms" of goods, services, persons and capital across Europe. Influential accounts of its development portray a "regulatory state" (Majone 1996) that undertook "integration by stealth" (Genschel & Jachtenfuchs 2016) behind a "veil of law" (Burley & Mattli 1993), partly thanks to public inattention amid a "permissive consensus" of diffuse Europeanism (Hooghe & Marks 2009). Some experts defend the result as acceptably democratic-noting that technical regulation is rarely subject to broad accountability even in the healthiest democracies (Moravcsik 2002)- but many more see the Single Market as the heart of an EU "democratic deficit." They worry about the combination of little-understood regulatory responsibilities with a culturally fragmented "demos," an unelected executive, and "constitutionalization" of EU law in treaties that are very difficult to amend (among many, Weiler 1998; Føllesdal & Hix 2002; Hix 2013). These concerns seem highly plausible, but empirical evaluation of accountability in the Single Market confronts many challenges. Two motivate this paper. First, any such evaluation starts by documenting the citizen attitudes to which Single Market governance might or might not be accountable, but that data is scarce. Regular public surveys like Eurobarometer pose few questions about the Single Market or its core issues of market openness. Second, given reasons to expect that even in the most democratic arena, citizens will be less aware and engaged with technical-regulatory issues, what baseline helps us judge an acceptable level of accountability in a complex, continent-wide single market?

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268139226
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    Edition: 1st edition
    Series: Single market economics papers ; Working Paper 22
    Subjects: EU-Binnenmarkt; Rechenschaftspflicht; Glaubwürdigkeit; Vergleich; Meinungsforschung; USA; single market; domestic market; economic governance (EU); economic forecasting; comparative analysis; European Union
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten)
  14. In-depth review 2024
    The Netherlands
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of the Netherland's vulnerabilities related to high private debt levels and a large current account surplus, which has crossborder relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which... more

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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of the Netherland's vulnerabilities related to high private debt levels and a large current account surplus, which has crossborder relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future. Given the size of the Dutch economy and its interlinkages with the other EU Member States, these vulnerabilities have a cross-border relevance.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137758
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    Series: Array ; 274 (March 2024)
    Subjects: economic forecasting; macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; labour market; EU Member State; Netherlands; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  15. In-depth review 2024
    Romania
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Romania's vulnerabilities related to large government and external deficits, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)published in... more

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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Romania's vulnerabilities related to large government and external deficits, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    ISBN: 9789268137765
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    Series: Array ; 275 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; labour market; wage cost; tax system; economic forecasting; Romania; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  16. In-depth review 2024
    Sweden
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Sweden's vulnerabilities related to the real estate market and high private debt and - possibly - newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)... more

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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Sweden's vulnerabilities related to the real estate market and high private debt and - possibly - newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future. Sweden's economy contracted in 2023 due to rising interest rates and high inflation and is set to broadly stabilise in 2024. High inflation and the subsequent monetary policy tightening, combined with the prevalence of variable interest rates and high household debt, pushed down household consumption and housing construction. Housing construction in the rental sector also suffered from the stricter financial conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) companies. Overall investment is estimated to have decreased by 1.2% in 2023, driven by a decline in housing construction.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137789
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    Series: Array ; 277 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; energy policy; economic forecasting; Sweden; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  17. In-depth review 2024
    Cyprus
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review analyses the evolution of Cyprus's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in... more

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    This in-depth review analyses the evolution of Cyprus's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified in previous years, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042489
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    Series: Array ; 273 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; labour market; monetary policy; debt; banking; economic forecasting; Cyprus; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  18. In-depth review 2024
    Spain
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Spain's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, which have cross-border relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert... more

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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Spain's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, which have cross-border relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future. Given the size of the Spanish economy and its interlinkages with the other EU Member States, these vulnerabilities have a cross-border relevance. The Spanish economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.5% in 2023 and is projected to continue to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than last year. The strong growth outturn posted in 2023 was underpinned by the very positive labour market developments and the pick-up of wages sustaining private consumption, as well as the positive contribution from net exports and public consumption. Real GDP growth is forecast to moderate in 2024 to 1.7%, according to the Commission's Winter 2024 Interim Forecast, due to the weaker economic situation in Spain's main trading partners and to the lagged impact of recent years' interest rate hikes on aggregate demand. Consumption and investment, driven respectively by further real purchasing power gains for households, and the continued implementation of Spain's Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), are set to be the main drivers of r economic expansion. GDP growth is expected to accelerate again in 2025, to 2.0%. Headline inflation decelerated to 3.4% in 2023, largely thanks to the continued drop in energy prices throughout the year. Underlying price pressures eased gradually in 2023, to 5.8% on average, as the pass-through of high energy prices to other items, especially food and services, showed signs of fading only from the last quarter of 2023 onwards. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is set to decline further this year, to 3.2% on average (with underlying inflation projected to be 3.3%), despite the upward pressure of the expected phasing out of most government measures implemented to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042472
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 272 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; inflation; labour market; economic growth; economic forecasting; Spain; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  19. In-depth review 2024
    Slovakia
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the extent of Slovakia's vulnerabilities related to cost competitiveness, external accounts, house prices and household debt. Last year, an in-depth review was undertaken for Slovakia, and the Commission concluded... more

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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the extent of Slovakia's vulnerabilities related to cost competitiveness, external accounts, house prices and household debt. Last year, an in-depth review was undertaken for Slovakia, and the Commission concluded that Slovakia was not experiencing imbalances, as its vulnerabilities seemed overall contained in the near future and were expected to ease as economic conditions normalised. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)published in November 2023, again examines these, and any newly emerging vulnerabilities, and their implications.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137772
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 276 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; competitiveness; economic independence; economic forecasting; Slovakia; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  20. Exploring aspects of the state of competition in the EU
    final report
    Author: De Simone, Livia; Nava, Salvatore; Salomone, Elena; Aigner, Rafael Christian; Coates, James; Rancati, Luca; Walckiers, Alexis; Neto, Antonio; Pike, Chris; Beverelli, Cosimo; Camilli, Andrea; Colacurcio, Claudio; Cotignano, Giacomo; Zappia, Daniele; Ennis, Sean; Paetz, Stephan
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    There is growing evidence that over the past few decades competition across markets in the EU may have weakened: industry concentration and markups appear to have increased, while the gap between market leaders and followers seems to have widened and... more

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    There is growing evidence that over the past few decades competition across markets in the EU may have weakened: industry concentration and markups appear to have increased, while the gap between market leaders and followers seems to have widened and business dynamism seems to have declined. Against this background, this report investigates four important aspects of the state of competition in the EU. First, six sectoral cross-country price-concentration studies provide qualitative and, for mobile telecoms and airlines, empirical evidence that higher concentration seems to be associated with higher prices. Secondly, an analysis of the evolution of 'Global Superstars' (i.e. the most profitable of the world's largest firms) finds that their profit rates have increased significantly over the last 25 years, and that the distribution of profits has become more skewed. We also study how Global Superstars in the IT, pharma and consumer goods sectors are protected by barriers to entry. Thirdly, a survey of EU-based exporting firms suggests that effective domestic competition within the Single Market (i) is an important driver of their global export competitiveness (in particular effective competition in upstream goods markets) and (ii) is for a majority of respondents not constraining their scale in a way which would prevent them from being successful on global export markets. Finally, relying on own estimates of markups for 117,000 firms from 23 EU Member States and a general equilibrium macroeconomic model, we estimate based on three simulation scenarios that more effective competition across markets in the EU would likely contribute significantly to more investment, employment, productivity and increase GDP by more than 2% and 4% after 5 and 10 years respectively.

     
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  21. Surveys of professionals
    Author: Clements, Michael P.; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph S.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series ; no. 22, 13 (May 2022)
    Subjects: economic forecasting; survey expectations; data collection and modeling; quantitative methods
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten)
  22. The economic benefits of improving educational achievement in the European Union
    an update and extension
    Author: Hanushek, Eric Alan; Woessmann, Ludger
    Published: September 2019
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    Few people doubt that education is valuable for individuals and that a well-educated society benefits each country. But many do not fully understand the magnitude of impact of high-quality education on economic wellbeing. This report provides an... more

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    Few people doubt that education is valuable for individuals and that a well-educated society benefits each country. But many do not fully understand the magnitude of impact of high-quality education on economic wellbeing. This report provides an analysis of the economic benefits of educational improvement for each of the EU countries. The analysis focuses on the relationship between educational achievement (as measured by scores on the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)) and the longrun growth of nations. Prior research shows that test scores serve as a good proxy for the skills of a nation's workforce and that three-quarters of the variation in long-run growth rates across countries can be attributed to these quantitative measures of educational outcomes.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789276092209
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    Series: EENEE analytical report ; no. 39
    Subjects: Bildungsniveau; Wirtschaftswachstum; Bildungsreform; Prognoseverfahren; EU-Staaten; education policy; school results; economic forecasting; economic growth; educational reform; economic consequence; profit
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. European business cycle indicators
    1st quarter (2020)
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Publ. Off. of the Europ. Union, Luxembourg

    The Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) for the euro area (EA) and the EU began the first quarter of 2020 on an upbeat note, booking solid increases in January and February after some two years of broadly declining readings. The tentative recovery,... more

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    The Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) for the euro area (EA) and the EU began the first quarter of 2020 on an upbeat note, booking solid increases in January and February after some two years of broadly declining readings. The tentative recovery, however, came to an abrupt halt in March, when coronavirus struck and sentiment plummeted as much as never before in a single month (EA: −8.9, EU: −8.2 points). - Losing 6.4 (EA) and 6.2 (EU) points over the quarter, i.e. between December 2019 and March 2020 - the heftiest quarterly losses since the sovereign debt crisis - both indicators fell firmly below their long-term average of 100. The indicators' current levels of 94.5 (EA) and 94.8 (EU) points were last seen in 2013, during the recovery following the sovereign debt crisis. - The spread of coronavirus and its accompanying containment measures also determined the evolution of the new Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI), which posted the sharpest decline on record (EA: −10.9, EU: −9.7) after the first two months of the year had seen a continuation of the broad sideways movement already witnessed in 2019-Q4. - Confidence in services and retail trade dropped sharply and settled at levels well below long-term averages, reflecting the immediate impact of governments' confinement measures on businesses in those sectors. Also consumer morale took a sizeable hit, bringing the indicator back to its long-term average which it had exceeded since late 2014. By contrast, industry and construction confidence posted more contained losses, with the latter remaining at historically high levels, while industry confidence continued to undercut its long-term average. - Focussing on the six largest EU economies, by far the starkest quarterly losses were registered in Italy (−17.8), Poland (−7.2) and Germany (−7.1), while the slide in sentiment was less severe in Spain (−3.4), the Netherlands (−2.3) and France (−0.8). - While the decrease of the indicators in March is historically unprecedented in many cases, it is important to note that this is not yet reflecting the full impact of the crisis. Most responses to the March wave of the surveys were collected before significant containment measures were enacted in almost all EU countries.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Article (journal)
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789276146438
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    Parent title: European business cycle indicators - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 039 (April 2020)
    Subjects: euro area; macroeconomics; economic cycle; economic forecasting; economic policy; economic indicator; economic analysis; economic survey; data processing; serial publication
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. A portfolio perspective on euro area bank profitability using stress test data
    Author: Mirza, Harun; Salleo, Carmelo; Trachana, Zoe
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted... more

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    This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries to assess the profitability of lending activities among euro area banks. Using banks' own projections under the adverse scenarios of the stress test exercises for a consistent sample of euro area banks, we aim to uncover the effect of severe macroeconomic and financial conditions on the profitability of the various portfolios. We investigate how many country portfolios switch from profitable to loss-making under adverse conditions and show that this number peaks in the 2018 stress test exercise, while the 2021 exercise yields the lowest overall profitability. Overall, around 30% of exposures become unprofitable under stress conditions across the latest two exercises (compared to 20% for the 2016 exercise), mostly concentrated in the nonfinancial corporations (NFC) segment and, to a lesser extent, in the financial and mortgage portfolios. We also show in a regression analysis that the yield curve is an important determinant of portfolio-level profitability in a stress test setting, while the unemployment rate seems to be relevant in determining portfolio switches and GDP growth seems to influence the change in profitability. The results also point to some portfolio heterogeneity.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289964241
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/306585
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 356
    Subjects: Bank profitability; net interest income; cost of risk; stress testing; scenario analysis; portfolio analysis; euro area; economic forecasting; profitability; financial stress test; financial risk; economic analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    Greece (Spring 2024), Greece, ...
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The fourth post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 8 to 15 April 2024. It involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participate on aspects... more

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    The fourth post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 8 to 15 April 2024. It involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participate on aspects relating to its Early Warning System, and staff from the International Monetary Fund also participated. Economic activity is expected to pick up slightly, with growth continuing to exceed the long-term potential in 2024-2025. Greece registered 2% real GDP growth in 2023, well above the EU and euro area average of 0.4%. Output growth is expected to regain momentum, supported by accelerating investments and solid private consumption growth, reaching 2.2% and 2.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Following a period of stable inflation rates since mid-2023, inflation is expected to decrease at a moderate pace reaching 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Price pressures are set to ease only gradually due to still persistently high food inflation and solid wage growth fuelled by tightening labour market conditions and the recent minimum wage increase. Unemployment is projected to continue declining, although the improvements in the labour market are expected to be slowed by strong labour market segmentation. Despite a marked decrease in the current account deficit in 2023 to 6.3% of GDP, it remains high and is set to narrow only moderately in the coming years due to an expected increase in the import of capital goods amid stronger investment activity.

     
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