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  1. Dual returns to experience
    Author: Garcia-Louzao, Jose; Hospido, Laura; Ruggieri, Alessandro
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Lietuvos Bankas, Vilnius

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    Language: English
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    Series: Working papers series / Lietuvos Bankas ; No.2022,102
    Subjects: labor market duality; human capital; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Financial turmoil and earnings mobility
    Author: Naguib, Costanza
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Universität Bern, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Bern, Switzerland

    We analyze how earnings dynamics changed in the US after the financial crisis of 2007- 2009. Differently from most models for earnings mobility, we allow persistence patters to depend semi-nonparametrically on both the past individual position in the... more

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    We analyze how earnings dynamics changed in the US after the financial crisis of 2007- 2009. Differently from most models for earnings mobility, we allow persistence patters to depend semi-nonparametrically on both the past individual position in the distribution and on a set of individual-level covariates. Allowing for more flexibility in the model yields a better fit to the data and permits us to uncover changes in earnings mobility patterns that would otherwise remain hidden. Indeed, at the aggregate level, we find no evidence of changes in individual positional persistence in any part of the earnings distribution after the crisis, both with the parametric and with the semi-nonparametric model. However, the semi-nonparametric copula allows us to uncover an increase in earnings mobility for 45-year-old workers with college degree after the crisis.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266513
    Edition: This version: January 2022
    Series: Discussion papers / Universität Bern, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Economics ; 22, 08 (January, 2022)
    Subjects: earnings dynamics; positional persistence; financial crisis; functional copula model; semi-nonparametric estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Author: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete... more

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    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households possess private advance information on their future earnings. We find that households are better informed about their future earnings than an econometrician and that individual expectations are more relevant for the consumption choices of households in the left tail of the wealth distribution. Furthermore, households with advance information prefer less progressive earnings taxes.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263969
    Series: Array ; TI 2022, 049
    Subjects: Private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Author: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, Palaiseau, France

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    Series: Working paper series / Center for Research in Economics and Statistics ; 2022, no. 15 (August 2022)
    Subjects: Private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Top earners
    a labor productivity process
    Author: Campanale, Claudio; Fernandez-Bastidas, Rocio
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Università degli studi di Torino, [Torino]

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Department of Economics and Statistics working paper series ; no. 74 (May 2022)
    Subjects: top earners; earnings dynamics; heterogeneous income growth
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 13 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Estimating the elasticity of taxable income when earnings responses are sluggish
    Author: Vattø, Trine Engh
    Published: April 2020
    Publisher:  Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo

    Estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is conventionally obtained by "stacking" three-year overlapping differences in the estimation. In effect, this means that the ETI estimate is an average of first-, second-, and third-year effects.... more

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    Estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is conventionally obtained by "stacking" three-year overlapping differences in the estimation. In effect, this means that the ETI estimate is an average of first-, second-, and third-year effects. The present paper draws attention to this implication and suggests that if there is gradual adjustment the analyst should rather estimate the ETI by a dynamic panel data model. When using Norwegian income tax return data for wage earners over a 14-year period (1995-2008) in the estimation, an ETI estimate of 0.15 is obtained from the dynamic specification, compared to 0.11 for the conventional approach. Importantly, the conventional approach fails to render a long-term elasticity estimate by increasing the time span of each difference.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249116
    Series: Discussion papers / Statistics Norway, Research Department ; no. 926
    Subjects: elasticity of taxable income; time frame; tax reform; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Dual returns to experience
    Author: Garcia-Louzao, Jose; Hospido, Laura; Ruggieri, Alessandro
    Published: July 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this paper we study human capital accumulation and wage trajectories of young workers in a dual labor market. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we follow workers since labor market entry to measure experience accumulated under different... more

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    In this paper we study human capital accumulation and wage trajectories of young workers in a dual labor market. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we follow workers since labor market entry to measure experience accumulated under different contractual arrangements and relate it to current wages. We show that returns to experience accumulated in fixed-term contracts are, on average, lower than the returns to experience acquired in permanent jobs. However, this gap masks significant heterogeneity across individuals. The gap in returns widens along the skill distribution, where workers in the upper tail have the largest difference in returns. Moreover, among equally experienced workers, higher incidence of temporary employment in the past is associated with substantially lower wages. Ultimately, heterogeneous returns to experience translate into significant changes in the position of workers along the distribution of wage growth after 15 years in the labor market, bearing implications for life-cycle wage inequality.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245647
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14596
    Subjects: human capital; labor market duality; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Earnings dynamics in Germany
    Author: Pessoa, Ana Sofia
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper documents earnings dynamics over the life-cycle and income level using a large administrative database from German tax records. I find that labor earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and... more

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    This paper documents earnings dynamics over the life-cycle and income level using a large administrative database from German tax records. I find that labor earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. For the bottom earners, large income changes are driven equally by hours and wages which is consistent with transitions between labor status or jobs, whereas for those at the top, earnings changes are mainly induced by wage rate growth. There are also asymmetries in mean reversion of earnings growth mainly driven by the asymmetric hours dynamics. Finally, there is no evidence of an added-worker effect but government insurance and income pooling can mitigate the pass-through of individual earnings changes to the household level and attenuate the deviations from normality of the male earnings growth distribution.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236659
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9117 (2021)
    Subjects: earnings dynamics; earnings risk; insurance; wages; hours; higher-order earnings risk; skewness; kurtosis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Dual returns to experience
    Author: Garcia-Louzao, Jose; Hospido, Laura; Ruggieri, Alessandro
    Published: October 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    In this paper we study how labor market duality affects human capital accumulation and wage trajectories of young workers. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we follow workers since their entry into the labor market to measure experience... more

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    In this paper we study how labor market duality affects human capital accumulation and wage trajectories of young workers. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we follow workers since their entry into the labor market to measure experience accumulated under different contractual arrangements and we estimate their wage returns. We document lower returns to experience accumulated in fixed-term contracts compared to permanent contracts and show that this difference is neither due to unobserved firm heterogeneity nor match quality. Instead, we provide evidence that the gap in returns is due to lower human capital accumulation while working under fixed-term contracts. In line with skill-learning complementarity, our results suggest that the widespread use of fixed-term work arrangements reduces skill acquisition of high-skilled workers, holding back life-cycle wage growth by up to 16 percentage points after 15 years since labor market entry.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267265
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10032 (2022)
    Subjects: labor market duality; human capital; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Dual returns to experience
    Author: Garcia-Louzao, Jose; Hospido, Laura; Ruggieri, Alessandro
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Series: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2211
    Subjects: labor market duality; human capital; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 95 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Author: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Published: July 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this paper, we document that households’ consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete... more

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    In this paper, we document that households’ consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households possess private advance information on their future earnings. We find that households are better informed about their future earnings than an econometrician and that individual expectations are more relevant for the consumption choices of households in the left tail of the wealth distribution. Furthermore, households with advance information prefer less progressive earnings taxes.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263659
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15443
    Subjects: private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. How to weight in moments matchings
    a new approach and applications to earnings dynamics
    Author: Cheng, Xu; Sánchez-Becerra, Alejandro; Shephard, Andrew
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Cemmap, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL, [London]

    Following the seminal paper by Altonji and Segal (1996), empirical studies have widely embraced equal or diagonal weighting in minimum distance estimation to mitigate the finite-sample bias caused by sampling errors in the weighting matrix. This... more

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    Following the seminal paper by Altonji and Segal (1996), empirical studies have widely embraced equal or diagonal weighting in minimum distance estimation to mitigate the finite-sample bias caused by sampling errors in the weighting matrix. This paper introduces a new weighting scheme that combines cross-fitting and regularized weighting matrix estimation. We also provide a new cross-fitting standard error, applying cross-fitting to estimate the asymptotic variance. In a many-moment asymptotic framework, we demonstrate the effectiveness of cross-fitting in eliminating a first-order asymptotic bias due to weighting matrix sampling errors. Additionally, we demonstrate that some economic models in the earnings dynamics literature meet certain sparsity conditions, ensuring that the proposed regularized weighting matrix behaves similarly to the oracle weighting matrix for these applications. Extensive simulation studies based on the earnings dynamics literature validate the superiority of our approach over commonly employed alternative weighting schemes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284137
    Edition: This Version: June 25, 2023
    Series: Cemmap working paper ; CWP23, 13
    Subjects: cross fitting; covariance structure model; earnings dynamics; graphical lasso; many moments; minimum distance estimation; weighting matrix
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. How to weight in moments matchings
    a new approach and applications to earnings dynamics
    Author: Cheng, Xu; Sánchez-Becerra, Alejandro; Shephard, Andrew
    Published: June 25, 2023
    Publisher:  Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: PIER working paper ; 23, 010
    Subjects: cross fitting; covariance structure model; earnings dynamics; graphicallasso; many moments; minimum distance estimation; weighting matrix
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    This version: June 25, 2023
  14. Incarceration, earnings, and race
    Author: Gordon, Grey; Jones, John Bailey; Neelakantan, Urvi; Athreya, Kartik B.
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond

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    Series: Working paper series / The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond ; WP 21, 11
    Subjects: earnings dynamics; incarceration; racial inequality
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Author: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and... more

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    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households receive private signals on their future earnings. We find that households' earnings uncertainty is significantly lower than what is typically assumed in incomplete markets models. Facing lower earnings uncertainty, households prefer less progressive earnings taxes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/273833
    Series: Array ; TI 2023, 022
    Subjects: Private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Self-employment and labor market risks
    Author: Audoly, Richard
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, [New York, NY]

    I study the labor market risks associated with being self-employed. I document that the self-employed are subject to larger earnings fluctuations than employees and that they frequently transition into unemployment. Given that the self-employed are... more

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    I study the labor market risks associated with being self-employed. I document that the self-employed are subject to larger earnings fluctuations than employees and that they frequently transition into unemployment. Given that the self-employed are not eligible to unemployment insurance, I analyze the provision of benefits targeted at these risks using a calibrated search model with (i) precautionary savings, (ii) work opportunities in paid and self-employment, and (iii) skill heterogeneity. This exercise suggests that extending the current U.S. unemployment insurance scheme to the self-employed comes with a clear increase in the transition rate from self-employment to unemployment and an unequal benefits-tocontributions ratio across skill groups. At the calibrated parameters, the self-employed in the middle of the skill distribution lose welfare.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284045
    Series: Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; no. 1085 (January 2024)
    Subjects: Selbstständige; Arbeitsmarkt; Risiko; Arbeitslosigkeit; Arbeitslosenversicherung; Einkommen; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; USA; self-employment; unemployment insurance; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Differences set in stone
    evidence on the inequality-mobility trade off in Italy
    Author: Subioli, Francesca; Raitano, Michele
    Published: 2022 December
    Publisher:  ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, [Verona]

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    Series: Working paper series / ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality ; 633 (2022)
    Subjects: Earnings inequality; Great Gatsby curve; intragenerational mobility; earnings dynamics; unequal mobility; Italy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Richer earnings dynamics, consumption and portfolio choice over the life cycle
    Author: Gálvez, Julio; Paz Pardo, Gonzalo
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Series: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2241
    Subjects: portfolio choice; life cycle; earnings dynamics; household finances; simulated method of moments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Heterogeneous autoregressions in short T panel data models
    Author: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Yang, Liying
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper considers a first-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-specific effects and a heterogeneous autoregressive coefficient. It proposes estimators for the moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive... more

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    This paper considers a first-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-specific effects and a heterogeneous autoregressive coefficient. It proposes estimators for the moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive coefficients, with a focus on the first two moments, assuming a random coefficient model for the autoregressive coefficients without imposing any restrictions on the fixed effects. It is shown that the standard generalized method of moments estimators obtained under homogeneous slopes are biased. The paper also investigates conditions under which the probability distribution of the autoregressive coefficients is identified assuming a categorical distribution with a finite number of categories. Small sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and compared with alternatives both under homogenous and heterogeneous slopes. The utility of the heterogeneous approach is illustrated in the case of earning dynamics, where a clear upward pattern is obtained in the mean persistence of earnings by the level of educational attainments.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279259
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10509 (2023)
    Subjects: dynamic panels; categorical distribution; random and group heterogeneity; short T panels; earnings dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. German male income volatility 1984 to 2008
    trends in permanent and transitory income components and the role of the welfare state
    Author: Bartels, Charlotte; Bönke, Timm
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  DIW, Berlin

    Deploying data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) we analyze the variability of individual earnings and equivalent household income. Permanent and transitory variances of male income over the period 1984-2008 are estimated for Old German... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Deploying data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) we analyze the variability of individual earnings and equivalent household income. Permanent and transitory variances of male income over the period 1984-2008 are estimated for Old German Laender in order to determine their importance to income dynamics. To uncover the role of the welfare state in smoothening earnings shocks we compute different income concepts reaching from gross earnings to net equivalent household income. We find evidence that the overall inequality of earnings in Germany has been rising throughout the period due to both higher permanent inequality and higher volatility. However, taking the welfare state and its institutions into account, we find that net household income has remained fairly stable.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/150870
    Series: SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 325
    Subjects: Einkommen; Volatilität; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Haushaltseinkommen; Verfügbares Einkommen; Männliche Arbeitskräfte; Schätzung; Deutschland; Earnings inequality; permanent income inequality; transitory income volatility; earnings dynamics; safety net; transfer payments
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 28 S., 0,59 MB), graph. Darst.
  21. German Male Income Volatility 1984 to 2008 : Trends in Permanent and Transitory Income Components and the Role of the Welfare State
    Author: Bartels, Charlotte; Bönke, Timm
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin

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  22. German male income volatility 1984 to 2008
    trends in permanent and transitory income components and the role of the welfare state
    Author: Bartels, Charlotte; Bönke, Timm
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  Freie Univ., Berlin

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  23. What do data on millions of US workers reveal about life-cycle earnings risk?
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    We study the evolution of individual labor earnings over the life cycle, using a large panel data set of earnings histories drawn from U.S. administrative records. Using fully nonparametric methods, our analysis reaches two broad conclusions. First,... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 207 (710)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We study the evolution of individual labor earnings over the life cycle, using a large panel data set of earnings histories drawn from U.S. administrative records. Using fully nonparametric methods, our analysis reaches two broad conclusions. First, earnings shocks display substantial deviations from lognormality - the standard assumption in the literature on incomplete markets. In particular, earnings shocks display strong negative skewness and extremely high kurtosis - as high as 30 compared with 3 for a Gaussian distribution. The high kurtosis implies that, in a given year, most individuals experience very small earnings shocks, and a small but non-negligible number experience very large shocks. Second, these statistical properties vary significantly both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. We also estimate impulse response functions of earnings shocks and find important asymmetries: Positive shocks to high-income individuals are quite transitory, whereas negative shocks are very persistent; the opposite is true for low-income individuals. Finally, we use these rich sets of moments to estimate econometric processes with increasing generality to capture these salient features of earnings dynamics.

     
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/120829
    Series: Staff report / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; 710
    Subjects: Lohn; Schock; Einkommen; Risiko; Lebensverlauf; Verdienstausfall; Schätzung; USA; earnings dynamics; life-cycle earnings risk; nonparametric estimation; kurtosis; skewness; non-Gaussian shocks; normal mixture
    Scope: Online-Ressource ([1], 70 S.), graph. Darst.