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  1. GDP-linked bonds
    some simulations on EU countries
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The economic and fiscal outlook has recently improved for European economies, raising the odds that high public debts inherited from the crisis will be gradually wound down in line with EU fiscal rules. This will however take time and future debt... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    The economic and fiscal outlook has recently improved for European economies, raising the odds that high public debts inherited from the crisis will be gradually wound down in line with EU fiscal rules. This will however take time and future debt trajectories remain exposed to significant uncertainties. In this context, this paper explores some implications of GDP-linked bonds (GLBs), an instrument for national debt management that has recently sparked growing interest. Based on the data and tools of the Commission Debt Sustainability Monitor, our results suggest significant potential benefits from GLBs in reducing debt uncertainties for all European economies. These benefits would be notably large in countries characterised by medium-to-high debt, high macroeconomic volatility and limited alternative tools to smoothen shocks. A risk premium would not eliminate the debt-stabilisation benefits brought by GLBs. The fall in the probability of explosive debt paths could also reduce the premium demanded by investors on conventional bonds in high-debt countries. The issuance of a fraction of GLBs can however be no substitute for pursuing sound economic and budgetary policies curbing national debts.

     

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    ISBN: 9789279721953
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    Series: Array ; 073 (December 2017)
    Subjects: GDP-linked bonds; debt sustainability; sovereign risk; public debt; international credit; international finance; bond; EU Member State
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  ESM, Luxembourg

    We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we compute also the risk premium. The model applies to coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds, and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters (coupon, target GDP growth rate, and maturity). We calibrate for UK and US instruments, and carry out sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters. We also compare coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds. Further results with calibrated instruments for Germany, Italy and South Africa shed light on a policy question, whether the risk premia of these bonds make them beneficial for sovereigns. Our findings affirm that designs are possible for both coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds that can benefit a sovereign, with an advantage for coupon-indexed bonds. This finding is robust, but a nuanced reading is needed due to the many inter-related risk factors and design parameters that affect prices and premia.

     

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    ISBN: 9789295085510
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    Series: Working paper series / European Stability Mechanism ; 29
    Subjects: Contingent bonds; debt restructuring; asset pricing; incomplete markets; risk premia; stochastic programming; super-replication; bond; debt; microeconomics; economic cycle; international finance; financial institution
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?
    the implications of alternative types of bond financing
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  ESM, Luxembourg

    We assess the conditions under which exchange rate fluctuations are contractionary for firm-level investment. To address this question, we match firm-level balance sheet data with a large dataset of firm-level bonds for about 1,000 firms from 36... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    We assess the conditions under which exchange rate fluctuations are contractionary for firm-level investment. To address this question, we match firm-level balance sheet data with a large dataset of firm-level bonds for about 1,000 firms from 36 emerging market economies over the period 1998-2014. We augment a standard firm-level investment model to control for (country-specific) macroeconomic variables, and interact the effect of an exchange rate depreciation with several dimensions of bond composition, namely: 1) currency of issuance; 2) maturity structure of bonds; and 3) market of issuance. We find that, conditional on the amount of debt issued in foreign currency, an exchange rate depreciation can have a contractionary impact on a firm's investment spending. We also find that the market of issuance and maturity structure, in particular, when coupled with foreign currency-denominated debt can influence this impact.

     

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    ISBN: 9789295085473
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    Series: Working paper series / European Stability Mechanism ; 26
    Subjects: bonds; firm-level data; Investment; exchange rate; balance sheet; debt; bond; world economy; economic cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. ESBies
    safety in the tranches
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  European Systemic Risk Board, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The euro crisis was fueled by the diabolic loop between sovereign risk and bank risk, coupled with cross-border flight-to-safety capital flows. European Safe Bonds (ESBies), a union-wide safe asset without joint liability, would help to resolve these... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    The euro crisis was fueled by the diabolic loop between sovereign risk and bank risk, coupled with cross-border flight-to-safety capital flows. European Safe Bonds (ESBies), a union-wide safe asset without joint liability, would help to resolve these problems. We make three contributions. First, numerical simulations show that ESBies would be at least as safe as German bunds and approximately double the supply of euro safe assets when protected by a 30%-thick junior tranche. Second, a model shows how, when and why the two features of ESBies - diversification and seniority - can weaken the diabolic loop and its diffusion across countries. Third, we propose a step-by-step guide on how to create ESBies, starting with limited issuance by public or private-sector entities.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789295081512
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/193528
    Edition: This draft: September, 2016
    Series: Working paper series / ESRB, European Systemic Risk Board, European System of Financial Supervision ; no 21 (September 2016)
    Subjects: Eurobond; Öffentliche Anleihe; Eurozone; Bank; Portfolio-Management; Bankenregulierung; EU-Staaten; financial market; macroeconomics; public policy; bond; European Safe Bonds; safe assets; sovereign risk
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Liquidity transformation in asset management
    evidence from the cash holdings of mutual funds
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  European Systemic Risk Board, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We study liquidity transformation in mutual funds using a novel data set on their cash holdings To provide investors with claims that are more liquid than the underlying assets, funds engage in substantial liquidity management. Specifically, they... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    DS 611
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    We study liquidity transformation in mutual funds using a novel data set on their cash holdings To provide investors with claims that are more liquid than the underlying assets, funds engage in substantial liquidity management. Specifically, they hold substantial amounts of cash, which they use to accommodate inflows and outflows rather than transacting in the underlying portfolio assets. This is particularly true for funds with illiquid assets and at times of low market liquidity. We provide evidence suggesting that mutual funds' cash holdings are not large enough to fully mitigate price impact externalities created by the liquidity transformation they engage in.

     

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    Language: English
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    ISBN: 9789295081536
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    hdl: 10419/193530
    Series: Working paper series / ESRB, European Systemic Risk Board, European System of Financial Supervision ; no 23 (September 2016)
    Subjects: money-market liquidity; investment; bond; investment transaction; common fund; financial institution; liquidity transformation; asset management; mutual funds; cash holdings; fire sales
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Macroprudential policy with liquidity panics
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  European Systemic Risk Board, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We analyze the optimality of macroprudential policies in an environment where the role of the banking sector is to efficiently allocate liquid assets across firms. Informational frictions in the banking sector can lead to an interbank market freeze.... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    We analyze the optimality of macroprudential policies in an environment where the role of the banking sector is to efficiently allocate liquid assets across firms. Informational frictions in the banking sector can lead to an interbank market freeze. Firms react to the breakdown of the banking system by inefficiently accumulating liquid assets by themselves. This reduces the demand for bank loans and bank profits, which further disrupts the financial sector and increases the probability of a freeze, inducing firms to hoard even more liquid assets. Liquidity panics provide a new rationale for stricter liquidity requirements, as this policy alleviates the informational frictions in the banking sector and paradoxically can end up increasing aggregate investment. On the contrary, policies encouraging bank lending can have the opposite effect.

     

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    ISBN: 9789295081543
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    hdl: 10419/193531
    Series: Working paper series / ESRB, European Systemic Risk Board, European System of Financial Supervision ; no 24 (September 2016)
    Subjects: banking policy; money-market liquidity; aid to undertakings; market; financial market; bond; investment; loan
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Collateral pledgeability and asset manager portfolio choices during redemption waves
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  ESM, Luxembourg

    This paper studies whether Eurosystem collateral eligibility played a role in the portfolio choices of euro area asset managers during the "dash-for-cash" episode of 2020. We find that asset managers reduced their allocation to ECB-eligible corporate... more

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    This paper studies whether Eurosystem collateral eligibility played a role in the portfolio choices of euro area asset managers during the "dash-for-cash" episode of 2020. We find that asset managers reduced their allocation to ECB-eligible corporate bonds, selling them in order to finance redemptions, while simultaneously increasing their cash holdings. These findings add nuance to previous studies of liquidity strains and price dislocations in the corporate bond market during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating a greater willingness of dealers to increase their inventories of corporate bonds pledgeable with the ECB. Analysing the price impact of these portfolio choices, we also find evidence pointing to price pressure for both ECB-eligible and ineligible corporate bonds. Bonds that were held to a larger extent by investment funds in our sample experienced higher price pressure, although the impact was lower for ECB-eligible bonds. We also discuss broader implications for the related policy debate about how central banks could mitigate similar types of liquidity shocks.

     

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    ISBN: 9789295223349
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    Series: Working paper series / European Stability Mechanism ; 58 (2023)
    Subjects: Investment funds; dash-for-cash; corporate bonds; Eurosystem collateral eligibility; euro area; Eurosystem; European Investment Fund; bond; European Central Bank; money-market liquidity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten)
  8. Finance in Africa
    uncertain times, resilient banks : African finance at a crossroads
    Published: [2023]; ©2023
    Publisher:  European Investment Bank, Luxembourg

    The Finance in Africa report emphasises the challenges faced by the African banking sector - including the impact of recent shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine - and the importance of gender diversity in business and... more

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    The Finance in Africa report emphasises the challenges faced by the African banking sector - including the impact of recent shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine - and the importance of gender diversity in business and banking. The report also discusses the need for international support and sustainable finance to advance economic development and climate change in Africa. It provides insights into the financial conditions, banking sector performance, and investment trends in the region. It covers the nature of climate finance flows in Africa and the degree of climate risk on bank balance sheets. With the right measures in place, Africa has the potential to overcome its challenges and unlock its true economic potential.

     

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    ISBN: 9789286155987; 9789286156045
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    Subjects: financial market; banking system; economic integration; bond; regional policy; gender equality; type of business; sustainable finance; investment; environmental risk prevention; Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 160 Seiten), Illustrationen (farbig)
    Notes:

    Bibl. : p. 149-151

  9. The effect of possible EU diversification requirements on the risk of banks' sovereign bond portfolios
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  European Systemic Risk Board, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Recent policy discussion includes the introduction of diversification requirements for sovereign bond portfolios of European banks. In this paper, we evaluate the possible effects of these constraints on risk and diversification in the sovereign bond... more

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    Recent policy discussion includes the introduction of diversification requirements for sovereign bond portfolios of European banks. In this paper, we evaluate the possible effects of these constraints on risk and diversification in the sovereign bond portfolios of the major European banks. First, we capture the dependence structure of European countries' sovereign risks and identify the common factors driving European sovereign CDS spreads by means of an independent component analysis. We then analyze the risk and diversification in the sovereign bond portfolios of the largest European banks and discuss the role of \home bias", i.e., the tendency of banks to concentrate their sovereign bond holdings in their domicile country. Finally, we evaluate the effect of diversification requirements on the tail risk of sovereign bond portfolios and quantify the system-wide losses in the presence of fire-sales. Under our assumptions about how banks respond to the new requirements, demanding that banks modify their holdings to increase their portfolio diversification may mitigate fire-sale externalities, but may be ineffective in reducing portfolio risk, including tail risk.

     

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    ISBN: 9789294720764
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    hdl: 10419/210864
    Series: Working paper series / ESRB, European Systemic Risk Board, European System of Financial Supervision ; no 89 (March 2019)
    Subjects: financial risk; bond; investment; bank; financial institution; public policy; Bank regulation; sovereign-bank nexus; sovereign risk; home bias; diversification
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The ECB’s transmission protection instrument
    a legal & economic analysis : study requested by the ECON committee
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  European Parliament, Luxembourg

    With the rise in interest rates and the phasing out of ECB's asset purchase programmes, highly indebted countries such as Italy and Greece are facing a sharper rise in their bond yields than Germany - a development often referred to as `bond market... more

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    With the rise in interest rates and the phasing out of ECB's asset purchase programmes, highly indebted countries such as Italy and Greece are facing a sharper rise in their bond yields than Germany - a development often referred to as `bond market fragmentation'. In response, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank announced the Transmission Protection Instrument on 21 July 2022. This paper provides a legal and economic examination of this new monetary policy instrument. It is compared with other non-conventional instruments in the context of the Treaty framework and the doctrine of the European Court of Justice.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    ISBN: 9789284697410
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    Series: Monetary dialogue papers ; September 2022
    Subjects: economic analysis; interest; public debt; bond; Court of Justice of the European Union; legal basis; financial risk; monetary policy; European Central Bank; risk management; EU financial instrument; Treaty on the Functioning of the EU
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (36 Seiten), Diagramme
    Notes:

    Manuscript completed: September 2022

  11. Evolution of Debt Financing Toward Less Regulated Financial Intermediaries
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  SSRN, [S.l.]

    Nonbank lenders have been playing an increasingly important role in the supply of debt financing, especially post Great Recession. These nonbank financial institutions not only participate in syndicated loans to large businesses but also act as... more

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    Nonbank lenders have been playing an increasingly important role in the supply of debt financing, especially post Great Recession. These nonbank financial institutions not only participate in syndicated loans to large businesses but also act as direct lenders to small and mid-sized businesses, providing loans previously were primarily supplied by banks. Moreover, the composition of bondholders has changed, with mutual funds and other less regulated entities having gained nontrivial market shares. What is the extent of nonbank lending? How important are the distortions associated with the varying degrees of regulatory oversight for banks that differentially limit risk-taking across alternative sources of credit? What are the financial stability implications of this transformed landscape of credit markets? This selective review addresses these important questions and also discusses how banks and nonbanks helped provide liquidity to the nonfinancial sector during the COVID-19 pandemic shock

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
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    Series: Fisher College of Business Working Paper ; No. 2022-03-004, 2022
    Subjects: Nonbank; fintech; bank regulation; loan; bond
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (72 p)
    Notes:

    Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments May 6, 2022 erstellt

  12. Corporate yields and sovereign yields
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2019, 23 (September 2019)
    Subjects: bond; debt; crisis; currency; mismatch
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Sovereign bond spreads and credit sensitivity
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Universidad del CEMA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because they have no contractual claims to defined assets and samples of defaults are limited. A geometric version of credit spread is used to... more

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    Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because they have no contractual claims to defined assets and samples of defaults are limited. A geometric version of credit spread is used to derive expected payments, dependent on idiosyncratic risk and unrelated to interest rates. The expectations are used to define a measure of price sensitivity to credit risk perceptions, or credit duration, improving the ambiguity of modified yield duration.

     

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    hdl: 10419/238383
    Series: Array ; nro. 758 (Octubre 2020)
    Subjects: bond; sovereign; spread; expected; risk neutral; default; duration; yield
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten)
  14. Responses of Swiss bond yields and stock prices to ECB policy surprises
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Swiss National Bank, Zurich

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    VS 555
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    Series: SNB working papers ; 2022, 8
    Subjects: bond; event study; international spillovers; monetary policy; stock
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Outages in sovereign bond markets
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We use outages as natural experiments to study sovereign bond market functioning. When the euro area futures market goes down, trading activity on the cash market declines, liquidity evaporates, and transaction prices deviate from fundamental values.... more

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    We use outages as natural experiments to study sovereign bond market functioning. When the euro area futures market goes down, trading activity on the cash market declines, liquidity evaporates, and transaction prices deviate from fundamental values. Tracing back this macro-level market breakdown to the micro-level, we show that particularly dealers withdraw from the cash market during outages. While most of their remaining trades remain fairly priced, dealer's capacity to intermediate trades on the cash market is reduced, forcing more clients to trade directly with each other, leading to substantial mispricing. Lastly, outages on cash trading venues barely affect the futures market, suggesting that price formation and liquidity provision is a one-way street, and outages on the US and euro area futures market barely affect each other, in stark contrast to the significant price spillovers. Our results reveal the trade-offs between a (de)centralized market structure, they support cross-asset learning models to explain the link between liquidity and arbitrage, and they demonstrate how financial intermediaries can impose important limits to arbitrage.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289967549
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    hdl: 10419/299587
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2944
    Subjects: Yield curve; market microstructure; natural experiment; bond; investment; financial risk; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 101 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Green bonds
    allocation and impact report
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    As of 1 August 2023, the Commission has issued EUR 44.2 billion of NGEU Green Bonds. NGEU Green Bond issuances are guided by the NGEU Green Bond Framework, which is aligned with the Green Bond Principles of the International Capital Market... more

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    As of 1 August 2023, the Commission has issued EUR 44.2 billion of NGEU Green Bonds. NGEU Green Bond issuances are guided by the NGEU Green Bond Framework, which is aligned with the Green Bond Principles of the International Capital Market Association (ICMA). This report constitutes the first comprehensive NGEU Green Bond report that also discloses climate impacts since the start of the NGEU Green Bond programme in 2021. Given the considerable ramp-up phase of investments and reforms in the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and in line with commitments made in the NGEU Green Bond Framework, the first impact report lags the allocation report by one year. In future, allocation and impact reports will be published annually.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268082171
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    Subjects: EU financial instrument; financial management; economic recovery; EU loan; bond; sustainable finance; capital market; impact study; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 107 Seiten)
  17. Spare tyres with a hole
    investment funds under stress and credit to firms
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We study the impact of a liquidity shock affecting investment funds on the financing conditions of firms. The abrupt liquidity needs of investment funds, triggered by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, prompted a retrenchment from bond purchases... more

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    We study the impact of a liquidity shock affecting investment funds on the financing conditions of firms. The abrupt liquidity needs of investment funds, triggered by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, prompted a retrenchment from bond purchases of firms and a withdrawal of short term funds from banks, impacting firm financing costs directly via bond markets, and indirectly via banks. According to our results, the spreads of corporate bonds held by investment funds increased. Furthermore, an increase in the short term funding exposure of a bank to investment funds triggered a contraction in new loans to euro area firms. Overall, our results show that while non-banks in general support firm financing by acting as a spare tyre when banks do not, their own stress can trigger a contractionary credit supply effect for firms.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289963978
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297357
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2917
    Subjects: Firm financing; Investment funds; Bank lending channel; Bond lending channel; Monetary policy; type of business; credit; financial stress test; industrial financing; economic consequence; bond
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The evolution of financial market infrastructure
    from digitalization to tokenization
    Published: March 2023
    Publisher:  Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom

    This paper examines the historical development and cross-sectional heterogeneities of Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI). From an evolutionary perspective, we review and compare FMIs in the US, Europe, and China. We identify an emerging trend in... more

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    This paper examines the historical development and cross-sectional heterogeneities of Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI). From an evolutionary perspective, we review and compare FMIs in the US, Europe, and China. We identify an emerging trend in which the development of FMI is transitioning from digitalization to tokenization with the rise of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). Digitalization reinforces centralization, while tokenization promotes decentralization, posing complex challenges to regulatory framework which is also part of FMI. We then specifically analyze DLT-based FMI in the bond market, evaluate different models of tokenization, and propose a heterogeneous consortium blockchain solution.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/284167
    Series: Cardiff economics working papers ; no. E2023, 05
    Subjects: digitalization; tokenization; blockchain; bond
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 13 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Fund fragility
    the role of investor base
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Using security-by-security data on investor holdings in the euro area, we study run dynamics across different fund-shares of the same fund during the unprecedented liquidity crisis in March 2020. For an average bond or equity mutual fund-share,... more

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    Using security-by-security data on investor holdings in the euro area, we study run dynamics across different fund-shares of the same fund during the unprecedented liquidity crisis in March 2020. For an average bond or equity mutual fund-share, households, other euro area funds, and the foreign sector each represent about a quarter of the total holdings. Insurance companies hold another 14%, with all other investors combined (banks, non-financial corporations, pension funds, etc.) accounting for less than 10% of holdings. Analyzing bond funds, we show that fund-shares with higher ownership by other funds suffered substantially higher outflows (by 6 percentage points), while fund-shares with higher ownership by households had substantially lower outflows (by 5 percentage points) compared to the other fund-shares within the same fund. This gap is not driven by time-varying differences in fund performance. Results for equity funds are similar, although they faced substantially smaller outflows, coupled with much larger declines in performance, compared to bond funds. Our findings suggest that a collective "dash for cash" by consumers and firms in need of liquidity at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic was not the source of mutual fund fragility. Instead, the most run-prone investor type turned out to be the fund sector itself.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789289962513
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297314
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2874
    Subjects: mutual funds; runs; liquidity; investor type; March 2020 liquidity crisis; euro area; monetary crisis; investment transaction; holding company; bond; investment; insurance company; money-market liquidity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. US monetary policy spillovers to European banks
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcements have created massive spillovers to global financial markets. Based on daily data for the sample from 1999 to 2019, this study finds that the Fed's monetary policy announcements created... more

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    The Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcements have created massive spillovers to global financial markets. Based on daily data for the sample from 1999 to 2019, this study finds that the Fed's monetary policy announcements created significant international spillovers to bond yields and stock prices of European banks and non-financial corporations (NFCs), while changes in uncertainty around the expected Fed policy path and Fed information effects constituted critical additional dimensions of these spillover effects. International spillovers to bond yields of banks and NFCs were similar, while stock prices of European banks responded somewhat stronger than those of NFCs. The significant spillovers from the Fed's forward guidance to European bond yields show that central bank communication is very relevant for international transmission. In relation to earlier studies emphasizing strong QE-related spillovers, this study suggests that Fed QE announcements created only small spillovers on bond yields and stock prices of European banks and NFCs.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    ISBN: 9789289962537
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297316
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2876
    Subjects: High-frequency event study; local projections; monetary policy shocks; monetary policy uncertainty; instrumental variables; monetary policy; international market; bank; economic forecasting; monetary crisis; bond; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Intermediation in US and EU bond and swap markets
    stylised facts, trends and impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  ESRB, European Systemic Risk Board, European System of Financial Supervision, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The trading of bonds and swaps largely relies on bank dealers as core market-makers. Dealers provide liquidity and trade the instruments with smaller or less active firms, in part by using their own balance sheets for inventory holding or hedging... more

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    DS 612
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    The trading of bonds and swaps largely relies on bank dealers as core market-makers. Dealers provide liquidity and trade the instruments with smaller or less active firms, in part by using their own balance sheets for inventory holding or hedging purposes. The reforms carried out in the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC) and the low interest rate environment have extensively changed the mechanisms and costs of trading fixed income instruments. This paper sets out to analyse the structure of trading in key over-the-counter (OTC) fixed income markets. We focus on three questions: (1) how are bonds and swaps currently traded and how liquid are these markets?, (2) how do the structural changes affect the dealer business model and market functioning?, and (3) how did the coronavirus (COVID-19) shock in March 2020 affect the OTC bond and swap market in its new post-reform set-up? To answer these questions, we combine an institutional and research perspective with a focus on key EU markets. We use public data and findings from the rich body of academic literature to describe the dealer business model and its post-GFC evolution. Overall, we argue that OTC fixed income trading is becoming "faster" due to the progress of electronic trading and the rise of non-bank traders, which has led bank dealers to make some adjustments to their market-making activities. The ongoing challenges faced in ensuring resilient provision of liquidity were also highlighted by the US bond market dislocation in March 2020.

     

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    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789294723505
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283516
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Systemic Risk Board ; no 24
    Subjects: Fixed income; market structure; liquidity; swaps; bonds; dealers; bond; swap arrangement; coronavirus disease; crisis management; money-market liquidity; broker; EU Member State; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The European sustainable debt market
    do issuers benefit from an ESG pricing effect?
    Published: 6 October 2023
    Publisher:  ESMA, Paris

    Issuance of sustainable-labelled debt has soared over the last years, benefitting from an increasing investor appetite for financial products that contain a sustainability element. At the same time, research suggests that sustainable-labelled debt... more

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    Issuance of sustainable-labelled debt has soared over the last years, benefitting from an increasing investor appetite for financial products that contain a sustainability element. At the same time, research suggests that sustainable-labelled debt issuers may benefit from a pricing advantage, the so-called 'greenium', which is often attributed to investor's willingness to forego returns in exchange for the sustainability element of the financial product they are investing in. However, existing evidence has not been conclusive so far regarding the existence of a definite pricing advantage, and it further focuses mainly on green bonds only. This article expands the analytical work to all environmental, social and governance (ESG) bond types and identifies a set of key factors potentially causing the greenium. The topic is thereby relevant to several of ESMA's mandates. It directly adds to the understanding of investor preferences for sustainable finance, it helps to investigate any pricing distortions between comparable debt instruments that might impact market stability if they unravel, and, finally, it contributes to ESMA's strategic priority of monitoring ESG market developments and assessing new financial instruments. In terms of findings, our analytical results cannot confirm the existence of a systematic and consistent pricing advantage for any ESG bond category. Furthermore, we find that in the past, issuers of ESG bonds benefitted from pricing premiums based on their issuer characteristics and that issuers' public sustainability commitments do not impact the pricing of their bonds. The European sustainable debt market - do issuers benefit from an ESG pricing effect?

     

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    ISBN: 9789295202993
    Other identifier:
    Series: ESMA TRV risk analysis
    Sustainable finance
    Subjects: Rentenmarkt; Nachhaltige Kapitalanlage; EU-Staaten; Greenium; financial stability; financial risk; risk management; sustainable finance; sustainable development; claim; green economy; multi-level governance; bond; fixing of prices; European Securities and Markets Authority; EU financial instrument
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten)
  23. Physical and transition risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The European Union plays a prominent role in climate regulations initiatives, this commitment likely implies that climate risk premiums look different in Europe compared to the rest of the world. This paper examines the pricing implications of... more

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    The European Union plays a prominent role in climate regulations initiatives, this commitment likely implies that climate risk premiums look different in Europe compared to the rest of the world. This paper examines the pricing implications of climate risks in euro area corporate bond markets, focusing on physical and transition risk. Using climate news as a gauge for systematic climate risk, we find a significant pricing effect of physical risk in long-term bonds, with investors demanding higher returns on bonds exposed to physical risk shocks. The estimated physical risk premium is 34 basis points, indicating increased awareness and hedging demand after the Paris Agreement. Transition risk premiums are smaller and less significant, reflecting the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy. Our findings contribute to understanding climate risk pricing in the European bond markets, highlighting the importance of physical risk and the evolving nature of investor demand for climate-resilient assets.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289963794
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    hdl: 10419/297339
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2899
    Subjects: Climate physical risk; climate transition risk; corporate bonds; news index; intertemporal hedging demand; bond; risk management; climate change; financial risk; sustainable development; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Central bank asset purchases and auction cycles revisited
    new evidence from the euro area
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles in the euro area. Using proprietary data on purchases of public sector securities implemented by the Eurosystem, the paper examines the... more

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    This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles in the euro area. Using proprietary data on purchases of public sector securities implemented by the Eurosystem, the paper examines the flow effects of asset purchase programmes on 10-year government bond yields in secondary markets around dates of public debt auctions. The findings indicate that Eurosystem's asset purchase flows mitigate yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility. The dampening effect of central bank asset purchases on auction cycles is more sizeable and precisely estimated for purchases of securities with medium-term maturities and in jurisdictions with relatively lower credit ratings. The analysis has broader implications for monetary policy and market functioning in the euro area.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289966757
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297367
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2927
    Subjects: Unconventional monetary policy; Public debt auctions; Bond yields; Flow effects; Eurosystem; central bank; bond; public debt; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Mutual funds and safe government bonds
    do returns matter?
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher... more

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    This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher returns on an unhedged basis, in particular euro-denominated securities. The size of the effect is large, leading to a change in portfolio share by around one percentage point on average in response to a change by one percentage point in the currency-specific excess return. Interestingly, mutual funds rebalance their portfolio towards currencies, such as the Japanese yen, that display large deviations in the covered interest parity and offer higher returns than US Treasuries on an hedged basis. Finally, when global financial risk is on the rise, US mutual fund managers repatriate their investments towards US government debt securities, mainly at the expenses of euro-denominated ones. Our results imply that deviations in pricing conditions like uncovered and covered interest parity for sovereign bonds affect capital flows from the United States towards other major currency areas.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289966795
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    hdl: 10419/297371
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2931
    Subjects: government bonds; safe assets; mutual funds; search for yield; covered interest parity; public debt; investment transaction; bond; financial derivative; balance-of-payments deficit; foreign currency; financial risk; currency area; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen