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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 66.

  1. An evaluation of the State of Iowa revenue forecasts, 1995 - 2017
    Author: Orazem, Peter F.
    Published: 12-2017
    Publisher:  Iowa State University, Department of Economics, Ames, Iowa

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    Series: Working paper / Iowa State University, Department of Economics ; number 17036
    Subjects: Iowa; Revenue Estimating Conference; forecast; tax revenue; refunds; gross; net; bias; forecast error; efficiency; budgeting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The small sample properties of Indirect Inference in testing and estimating DSGE models
    Author: Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Wickens, Michael R.; Xu, Yongdeng
    Published: March 2018
    Publisher:  Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom

    Indirect inference testing can be carried out with a variety of auxiliary models. Asymptotically these different models make no difference. However, the small sample properties can differ. We explore small sample power and estimation bias both with... more

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    Indirect inference testing can be carried out with a variety of auxiliary models. Asymptotically these different models make no difference. However, the small sample properties can differ. We explore small sample power and estimation bias both with different variable combinations and descriptive models (Vector Auto Regressions, Impulse Response Functions or Moments) in the auxiliary model. We find that both power and bias are similar when the number of variables used is the same. Raising the number of variables lowers the bias but may also raise the power unacceptably because it lowers the chances of finding a tractable model to pass the test.

     
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    Series: Cardiff economics working papers ; no. E2018, 7
    Subjects: Indirect Inference; DGSE model; Auxiliary Models; Simulated Moments Method; Impulse Response Functions; VAR; Moments; power; bias
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten)
  3. Local projections
    Author: Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M.
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2024, 24 (August 2024)
    Subjects: local projections; impulse responses; multipliers; smoothing; bias; inference; error bands; instrumental variables; indirect inference; policy evaluation; counterfactuals; Kitagawa decomposition; stratification; state dependence; panel data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Who is afraid of the pink elephant?
    character evidence, wiretapping, and debiasing interventions
    Author: Engel, Christoph; Golder, Jasmin; Rahal, Rima-Maria
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn

    Defendants should be judged on the merits of the case, not on prejudice, rumors, or evidence obtained through questionable methods. This is why criminal law of procedure regulates which information can be introduced in a trial. Two types of... more

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    Defendants should be judged on the merits of the case, not on prejudice, rumors, or evidence obtained through questionable methods. This is why criminal law of procedure regulates which information can be introduced in a trial. Two types of prohibited evidence are the criminal history of the defendant (the defendant shall not be considered more likely guilty since he had earlier been convicted for another crime), and information harvested from an unauthorized wiretap. In a series of online vignette experiments involving 1432 US participants, we show that character evidence never makes it significantly more likely that the defendant is judged guilty, whereas wiretap evidence has a strong effect. Various interventions aimed at debiasing the adjudicator have an effect, but this effect is insufficient to neutralize the bias.

     
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    hdl: 21.11116/0000-0010-3C9F-9
    Series: Discussion paper / Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ; 2024, 17
    Subjects: criminal procedure; character evidence; wiretap; bias; debiasing
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The impact of market factors on racial identity
    evidence from multiracial survey respondents
    Author: Jackson, Osborne
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  [Federal Reserve Bank of Boston], [Boston]

    This paper examines the reported race of multiracial persons in the US Current Population Survey (CPS) before 2003, when limited response options exogenously constrained respondents to identify as a single race. Using this survey attribute and the... more

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    This paper examines the reported race of multiracial persons in the US Current Population Survey (CPS) before 2003, when limited response options exogenously constrained respondents to identify as a single race. Using this survey attribute and the 16-month longitudinal design of the basic monthly CPS, I explore whether market factors help causally determine racial identity. I find that pre-2003 race responds to state-level (1) racial composition, due largely to household composition, and (2) unemployment rates and wages by race. Although these findings suggest potential endogeneity of race, estimation of how race affects individual-level labor market outcomes indicates minimal bias.

     
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    Edition: This version: October 2024
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 24, 13
    Subjects: Racial identity; multiracial; bias; Current Population Survey
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Issues in the estimation of mMis-specified models of fractionally integrated processes
    Author: Nadarajah, K.; Martin, Gael M.; Poskitt, Donald Stephen
    Published: June 2014
    Publisher:  Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Victoria

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    Series: Working paper / Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics ; 14, 18
    Subjects: bias; conditional sum of squares; frequency domain; long memory models; maximum likelihood; mean squared error; pseudo true parameter; time domain; Whittle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Testing random assignment to peer groups
    Author: Jochmans, Koen
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Edition: This version: April 11, 2021
    Series: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2024
    Subjects: asymptotic power; bias; peer effects; random assignment
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  8. Mistaking noise for bias
    victimhood and hutu-tutsi reconciliation in East Africa
    Author: Mukand, Sharun W.; Blouin, Arthur
    Published: 13 July 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP17468
    Subjects: Victimhood; Reconciliation; noise; bias
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Selecting the best when selection is hard
    Author: Drugov, Mikhail; Meyer, Margaret; Möller, Marc
    Published: 20 July 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP17484
    Subjects: Dynamic Contests; Selective Efficiency; bias; learning; promotions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Social preferences and rating biases in subjective performance evaluations
    Author: Kusterer, David J.; Sliwka, Dirk
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We study the determinants of biases in subjective performance evaluations in an MTurk experiment to test the implications of a standard formal framework of rational subjective evaluations. In the experiment, subjects in the role of workers work on a... more

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    We study the determinants of biases in subjective performance evaluations in an MTurk experiment to test the implications of a standard formal framework of rational subjective evaluations. In the experiment, subjects in the role of workers work on a real effort task. Subjects in the role of supervisors observe subsamples of the workers' output and assess their performance. We conduct 6 experimental treatments varying (i) whether workers' pay depends on the performance evaluation, (ii) whether supervisors are paid for the accuracy of their evaluations, and (iii) the precision of the information available to supervisors. In line with the predictions of the model of optimal evaluations we find that ratings are more lenient and less accurate when they determine bonus payments and that rewards for accuracy reduce leniency. When supervisors have access to more detailed performance information their ratings vary to a stronger extent with observed performance. In contrast to the model's prediction we do not find that more prosocial supervisors always provide more lenient ratings, but that they invest more time in the rating task and achieve a higher rating accuracy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/265717
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15496
    Subjects: subjective performance evaluation; bias; bonuses; differentiation; social preferences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Judicial decision-making a survey of the experimental evidence
    Author: Engel, Christoph
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn

    Judges are human beings. Is their behavior therefore subject to the same effects that psychology and behavioral economics have documented for convenience samples, like university students? Does that fact that they decide on behalf of third parties... more

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    Judges are human beings. Is their behavior therefore subject to the same effects that psychology and behavioral economics have documented for convenience samples, like university students? Does that fact that they decide on behalf of third parties moderate their behavior? In which ways does the need matter to find a solution when the evidence is inconclusive and contested? How do the multiple institutional safeguards resulting from procedural law, and the ways how the parties use it, affect judicial decision-making? Many of these questions have been put to the experimental test. The paper provides a systematic overview of the rich evidence, points out gaps that still exist, and discusses methodological challenges.

     
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    hdl: 21.11116/0000-000A-E4EF-8
    hdl: 10419/274055
    Series: Discussion papers of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ; 2022, 6
    Subjects: judicial decision-making; bias; heuristic; attitudinal model; ambiguity; parallel con-straint satisfaction; public perception
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  12. How peer groups influence economic perceptions
    Author: Knell, Markus; Stix, Helmut
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria

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    hdl: 10419/264819
    Series: Working paper / OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank ; 227
    Subjects: Reference groups; expectations; perceptions; bias
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Unbiased estimation as a public good
    Author: Kaplan, David M.
    Published: September 27, 2019
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

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    Series: Working papers / Department of Economics ; 19, 11
    Subjects: bias; mean squared error; meta-analysis; optimal estimation; science
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  14. Biased experts, majority rule, and the optimal composition of committee
    Author: Name Correa, Alvaro J.; Yildirim, Huseyin
    Published: June 12, 2018
    Publisher:  Economic Research Initiatives @ Duke (ERID), Durham, NC

    A committee of experts votes between a multi-attribute alternative and status quo. Each expert is a biased specialist who can privately evaluate only one attribute and puts more weight on it. We study whether a social-minded principal would compose... more

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    A committee of experts votes between a multi-attribute alternative and status quo. Each expert is a biased specialist who can privately evaluate only one attribute and puts more weight on it. We study whether a social-minded principal would compose the committee of more or less biased experts. We find that due to strategic voting, her optimal composition depends non-monotonically on the majority rule. The composition is, however, less crucial if experts can be uninformed. Nonetheless, the principal may prefer to have some uninformed experts, perhaps by rushing the vote, when the committee is large, or its composition is suboptimal

     
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    Series: ERID working paper ; number 268
    Subjects: bias; partisanship; majority rule; committee
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten)
  15. Correlated non-classical measurement errors, "second best" policy inference and the inverse size-productivity relationship in agriculture
    Author: Abay, Kibrom A.; Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Barrett, Christopher B.; Bernard, Tanguy
    Published: February 2018
    Publisher:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Series: IFPRI discussion paper ; 01710
    Subjects: Ethiopia; East Africa; Africa South of Sahara; Africa; agricultural development; smallholders; accuracy; measurement; agricultural productivity; field size; household surveys; wheat; correlated errors; non-classical measurement error; bias
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. How well do economists forecast recessions?
    Author: An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other... more

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of forecasts

     
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  17. On the accuracy of estimators based on a binary classifier
    Author: Scholtus, Sander; Delden, Arnout van
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  Statistics Netherlands, The Hague

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    Series: Discussion paper / Statistics Netherlands
    Subjects: classification errors; domain statistics; bias; variance; machine learning classifier
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Trustful competitor & distrustful cooperator
    impacts of assessment biases on trustworthy coopetition in policy
    Author: Lee, Junesoo
    Published: May, 2019
    Publisher:  KDI School of Public Policy and Management, [Sejong-si, Republic of Korea]

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    Series: KDI School working paper series ; 19, 08
    Subjects: coopetition; cooperation; competition; trust; distrust; bias; network
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Crowding-out the in-group bias
    a nationalist policy paradox?
    Author: Heap, Shaun Hargreaves; Levi, Eugenio; Ramalingam, Abhijiit
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC

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    Series: Department of Economics working paper / Appalachian State University ; number 20, 14 (November 2020)
    Subjects: experiment; dictator; game; social; identification; in-group; bias; incentives; crowding-out
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. No, judges are not influenced by outdoor temperature (or other weather)
    comment
    Author: Spamann, Holger
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA

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    Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin - Institute for Advanced Study, Bibliothek
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    Series: Discussion paper / Harvard John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business ; no. 1036 (07/2020)
    Subjects: Judicial decision-making; weather; bias; asylum; sentencing; replication
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten)
  21. Gender stereotyping in sports
    Author: Marcén, Miriam; Morales, Marina; Sevilla, Almudena
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper contributes to the literature of gender differences in academic attainment by putting together several sources of data going back several decades to investigate how gender stereotypes and parental time investments shape sport choices of... more

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    This paper contributes to the literature of gender differences in academic attainment by putting together several sources of data going back several decades to investigate how gender stereotypes and parental time investments shape sport choices of boys and girls during high school. Using data from the 2002-2019 National Federation of State High School Association, which provides information for every state on the total number of high school participants by gender in each sport, we document that states with more gender-equal norms are also states where boys and girls tend to break stereotypes when making sport choices in high school. We also identify parental time investments as being an important cultural-transmission mechanism.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223912
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13470
    Subjects: gender; stereotypes; bias; sports
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Detecting coverage bias in user-generated content
    Author: Kerkhof, Anna; Münster, Johannes
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    The importance of user-generated content is growing as media consumption is moving online; yet, investigations of media bias on user-generated content platforms are rare. We develop a novel procedure to detect coverage bias - i.e., bias in the amount... more

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    The importance of user-generated content is growing as media consumption is moving online; yet, investigations of media bias on user-generated content platforms are rare. We develop a novel procedure to detect coverage bias - i.e., bias in the amount of coverage certain topics or issues receive - on user-generated content platforms. We proceed in two steps. First, we focus on a sample of homogeneous observations and control for observable differences. Second, we compare the coverage of our observations between different language versions of the same platform in a difference-in-differences framework, which allows us to disentangle coverage bias from unobserved heterogeneity between observations. We apply our procedure to Wikipedia and examine whether it has a coverage bias in its biographies of German (and French) Members of Parliament (MPs). Our analysis reveals a small to medium size coverage bias against MPs from the center-left parties in Germany and in France. A plausible explanation are partisan contributions to the Wikipedia biographies, as we show by analyzing patterns of authorship and Wikipedia's talk pages for the German case. Practical implications of our results include raising users' awareness of coverage bias when searching for and processing information obtained on user-generated content platforms.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/228860
    Series: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 057 (January 2021)
    Subjects: bias; media bias; media economics; social media; user-generated content
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Improved estimation of poisson rate distributions through a multi-mode survey design
    Author: Hitczenko, Marcin
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    Researchers interested in studying the frequency of events or behaviors among a population must rely on count data provided by sampled individuals. Often, this involves a decision between live event counting, such as a behavioral diary, and recalled... more

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    Researchers interested in studying the frequency of events or behaviors among a population must rely on count data provided by sampled individuals. Often, this involves a decision between live event counting, such as a behavioral diary, and recalled aggregate counts. Diaries are generally more accurate, but their greater cost and respondent burden generally yield less data. The choice of survey mode, therefore, involves a potential tradeoff between bias and variance of estimators. I use a case study comparing inferences about payment instrument use based on different survey designs to illustrate this dilemma. I then use a simulation study to show how and under what conditions a hybrid survey design can improve efficiency of estimation, in terms of mean-squared error. Overall, this work suggests that such a hybrid design can have considerable benefits as long as there is nontrivial overlap in the diary and recall samples.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/244313
    Series: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021, 10 (February 2021)
    Subjects: recall surveys; diaries; bias; mean-squared error; multi-level models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Are there common/civil law differences and precedent effects in judging around the world?
    a lab experiment
    Author: Spamann, Holger; Klöhn, Lars; Jamin, Christophe; Khanna, Vikramaditya S.; Liu, Zhuang; Mamidi, Pavan; Morell, Alexander; Reidel, Ivan
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion paper / Harvard John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business ; no. 1044 (09/2020)
    Subjects: Common/civil law; judicial decision-making; experiment; comparative law; bias; anchoring; precedent; methodology
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 127 Seiten)
  25. Judges in the lab: no precedent effects, no common/civil law differences
    Author: Spamann, Holger; Klöhn, Lars; Jamin, Christophe; Khanna, Vikramaditya S.; Liu, Zhuang; Mamidi, Pavan; Morell, Alexander; Reidel, Ivan
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA

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    Jahrgang 2019/20 Spa
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    Edition: Update
    Series: Discussion paper / Harvard John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business ; no. 1044 update (11/2020)
    Subjects: Common/civil law; judicial decision-making; experiment; comparative law; bias; anchoring; precedent; methodology
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 127 Seiten)