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Displaying results 1 to 11 of 11.

  1. Internationalizing Like China
    Author: Clayton, Christopher; Santos, Amanda dos; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We empirically characterize how China is internationalizing the Renminbi by selectively opening up its domestic bond market to foreign investors and propose a dynamic reputation model to explain this internationalization strategy. The Chinese... more

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    We empirically characterize how China is internationalizing the Renminbi by selectively opening up its domestic bond market to foreign investors and propose a dynamic reputation model to explain this internationalization strategy. The Chinese government deliberately controlled the entry of foreign investors into its market, first allowing in relatively stable long-term investors like central banks before allowing in flightier investors like mutual funds. Our framework explains these patterns as the result of a government strategy to build its reputation as an international currency issuer while attempting to reduce the cost of potential capital flight as it tries to gain credibility. The dynamics of reputation make Chinese debt a substitute for emerging market risky debt in the early stages of internationalization and more of a substitute for developed market safe debt in the later stages. We use our framework to explore how countries compete to become a reserve currency provider. Competition worsens the incentives to build up reputation by reducing the benefits of having a higher reputation. The framework is tractable and can make sense of both new entrants like China and established players like the United States

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30336
    Subjects: Renminbi; Rentenmarkt; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; China; General; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Finance
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  2. Dollar Reserves and U.S. Yields
    Identifying the Price Impact of Official Flows
    Author: Ahmed, Rashad; Rebucci, Alessandro
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper shows that the price impact of foreign official (FO) purchases or sales of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) is about twice as large as previously reported in the literature once critical sources of endogeneity are addressed. We also show that... more

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    This paper shows that the price impact of foreign official (FO) purchases or sales of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) is about twice as large as previously reported in the literature once critical sources of endogeneity are addressed. We also show that prevailing estimates of this price impact suffer from omitted variable bias when foreign government bond yields and Federal Reserve policies are not controlled for. By exploiting changes in the volatility of FO flows and U.S. yields after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, we identify a FO flow shock via heteroskedasticity in a structural VAR. We estimate that a $100B flow shock moves the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields by more than 100 basis points on impact, compared to the 19-44 basis points range that we estimate by assuming FO flows are price inelastic and without controlling for foreign yields and Fed actions. Our findings suggest that FO sales of USTs played a critical role during the March 2020 episode of Treasury market turmoil and that even a small reduction in the Dollar's share of China's reserves could have a significant impact on U.S. long-term interest rates

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30476
    Subjects: Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Kapitalmobilität; Währungsreserven; US-Dollar; Staatspapier; Money and Interest Rates; International Factor Movements and International Business; General; General Financial Markets
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  3. Tracing the International Transmission of a Crisis Through Multinational Firms
    Author: Biermann, Marcus; Huber, Kilian
    Published: March 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal... more

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    We show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal lending, became financially constrained themselves, and experienced lower real growth. We find that managers were "Darwinist" with respect to international affiliates but "Socialist" in the home country, that internal capital markets transmitted the credit shock more strongly than a non-financial shock, and that access to developed credit markets attenuated the real effects. The total real impact of shock transmission through multinationals on foreign economies was large

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31061
    Subjects: Multinationales Unternehmen; Interner Kapitalmarkt; Kapitalmobilität; Unternehmensfinanzierung; Fremdkapital; Finanzkrise; Betriebliche Finanzwirtschaft; Deutschland; Money and Interest Rates; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Finance; Financial Crises; Financial Institutions and Services; Corporate Finance and Governance
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  4. Exporting Ideology
    The Right and Left of Foreign Influence
    Author: Antràs, Pol; Padró i Miquel, Gerard
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We present an economic rationale for countries resorting to foreign influence to export their ideology to other nations. Our model incorporates two fundamental elements: redistribution of the tax burden between capital owners and workers, and... more

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    We present an economic rationale for countries resorting to foreign influence to export their ideology to other nations. Our model incorporates two fundamental elements: redistribution of the tax burden between capital owners and workers, and international capital mobility. The model highlights the role of ideology in shaping both the taxes implemented by governments and the cross-border externalities of these policy choices. Pro-capital governments set lower capital taxes than pro-labor governments. Importantly, pro-capital governments benefit from other countries setting low capital taxes, while pro-labor governments' efforts to shift the tax burden onto capital owners are facilitated by higher capital taxes abroad. These cross-border externalities create strong incentives for engaging in foreign influence activities. We solve for a political equilibrium in which incumbent governments may exert costly actions that probabilistically affect the electoral outcome in other countries. In equilibrium, pro-capital parties exert influence aimed at promoting pro-capital parties and policies worldwide, while pro-labor governments carry out foreign influence activities aimed at boosting pro-labor parties and policies in other countries

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31399
    Subjects: Ideologie; Internationale Beziehungen; Internationale Wirtschaft; Kapitalmobilität; Steuerpolitik; Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession; International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
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  5. Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect
    Author: Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Mineyama, Tomohide; Song, Dongho
    Published: June 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a... more

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    After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We then employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to assess the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. Our analysis demonstrates that increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. Notably, we document a key asymmetry: fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies reveals that industries closely linked to global markets--such as manufacturing, construction, finance, and wholesale and retail trade--are adversely affected. Finally, we examine the interaction between fragmentation and the economic dynamics of regional economic blocs, highlighting significant differences in the impacts across various geopolitical blocs

     
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  6. An 'Austrian' Model of Global Value Chains
    Author: Antràs, Pol
    Published: January 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    I develop a stylized model of multi-stage production in which the time length of each stage is endogenously determined. Letting the production process mature for a longer period of time increases labor productivity, but it comes at the cost of higher... more

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    I develop a stylized model of multi-stage production in which the time length of each stage is endogenously determined. Letting the production process mature for a longer period of time increases labor productivity, but it comes at the cost of higher working capital needs for firms. Under autarky, countries with lower interest rates feature longer production processes, higher labor productivity, and higher wages. In a free trade equilibrium, countries with lower interest rates specialize in relatively 'time intensive' stages in global value chains (GVCs). Yet, if free trade brings about interest rate equalization, wages are also equalized and the pattern of trade is instead shaped by capital intensity and capital abundance, regardless of the time intensity of the various stages. Reductions in trade costs lead to patterns of specialization associated with higher amounts of vertical specialization in world trade. A worldwide decline in interest rates similarly fosters an increase in the share of GVC trade in world trade. The framework also sheds light on the role of trade credit and trade finance in shaping international specialization

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30901
    Subjects: Globale Wertschöpfungskette; Internationale Arbeitsteilung; Realzins; Wirtschaftsmodell; Österreichische Schule; Wirtschaftstheorie; Trade; International Factor Movements and International Business; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Economic Impacts of Globalization
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  7. International Diversification, Reallocation, and the Labor Share
    Author: David, Joel M.; Rancière, Romain; Zeke, David
    Published: April 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    How does growing international financial diversification affect firm-level and aggregate labor shares? We study this question using a novel framework of firm labor choice in the face of aggregate risk. The theory implies a cross-section of labor risk... more

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    How does growing international financial diversification affect firm-level and aggregate labor shares? We study this question using a novel framework of firm labor choice in the face of aggregate risk. The theory implies a cross-section of labor risk premia and labor shares that appear as markups in firm-level data. International risk sharing leads to a reallocation of labor towards riskier/low labor share firms alongside a rise in within-firm labor shares, matching key micro-level facts. We use cross-country firm-level data to document a number of empirical patterns consistent with the theory, namely: (i) riskier firms have lower labor shares and (ii) international financial diversification is associated with a reallocation towards risky/low labor share firms. Our estimates suggest the reallocation effect has dominated the within effect in recent decades; on net, increased financial integration has reduced the corporate labor share in the US by about 2.5 percentage points, roughly one-third of the total decline since the 1970s

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31168
    Subjects: Internationale Geschäftsbeziehungen; Internationale Faktormobilität; Kapitalmobilität; Internationale Unternehmensfinanzierung; Lohnquote; Welt; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements; Multinational Firms; International Business; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Labor
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  8. China as an International Lender of Last Resort
    Author: Horn, Sebastian; Parks, Bradley; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
    Published: April 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China's overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into... more

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    This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China's overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China's growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People's Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China's overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China's rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31105
    Subjects: Schuldenübernahme; Lender of Last Resort; Internationaler Kredit; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Internationale Staatsschulden; Swap; China; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Finance; International Financial Markets; Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt; Asia including Middle East
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  9. Export-Platform FDI
    Cannibalization or Complementarity?
    Author: Antràs, Pol; Fadeev, Evgenii; Fort, Teresa C.; Tintelnot, Felix
    Published: January 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We develop a model of export-platform foreign direct investment (FDI) in which final goods are produced only with labor and there are no fixed costs of exporting. We derive a simple condition that determines whether an MNE's plants are substitutes or... more

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    We develop a model of export-platform foreign direct investment (FDI) in which final goods are produced only with labor and there are no fixed costs of exporting. We derive a simple condition that determines whether an MNE's plants are substitutes or complements. This condition is shaped by the relative size of (i) the cross-firm elasticity of demand the MNE faces for its goods and (ii) the within-firm elasticity of labor substitution across the MNE's plants. In two extensions of the model, we show that this complementarity is enhanced by firm-level (rather than plant-level) fixed costs of exporting and of sourcing inputs

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32081
    Subjects: Multinationales Unternehmen; Auslandsinvestition; Theorie; Trade; International Factor Movements and International Business; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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  10. Exporting, Global Sourcing, and Multinational Activity
    Theory and Evidence from the United States
    Author: Antràs, Pol; Fadeev, Evgenii; Fort, Teresa C.; Tintelnot, Felix
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Multinational firms (MNEs) dominate trade flows, yet their global production decisions are often ignored in firm-level studies of exporting and importing. Using newly merged data on US firms' trade and multinational activity by country, we show that... more

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    Multinational firms (MNEs) dominate trade flows, yet their global production decisions are often ignored in firm-level studies of exporting and importing. Using newly merged data on US firms' trade and multinational activity by country, we show that MNEs are more likely to trade not only with countries in which they have affiliates, but also with other countries within their affiliates' region. We rationalize these patterns with a new source of firm-level scale economies that arises when country-specific fixed costs to source from, or sell in, a market are shared across all the MNE's plants. These shared fixed costs create interdependencies between a firm's production and trade locations that generate third-market responses to bilateral trade policy changes

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31488
    Subjects: Multinationales Unternehmen; Internationale Geschäftsbeziehungen; Internationale Produktion; Auslandsinvestition; Ausländische Tochtergesellschaft; Außenwirtschaftspolitik; USA; Trade; International Factor Movements and International Business
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  11. China as an international lender of last resort
    Author: Horn, Sebastian; Parks, Bradley; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), Kiel

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