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  1. Labour markets in Poland and Hungary five years from the start of transition
    evidence from monthly data
  2. Labour markets in Poland and Hungary five years from the start of transition
    Evidence from monthly data
  3. Unemployment, growth and fiscal policy
    new insights on the hysteresis hypothesis
    Published: Apr. 2004
    Publisher:  IZA, Bonn

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: [Elektronische Ressource]
    Series: Discussion paper series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 1127
    Subjects: Arbeitslosigkeit; Hysterese; Endogenes Wachstumsmodell; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht; Lohnrigidität; Haushaltskonsolidierung; Investition; Theorie; EU-Staaten; USA; Faktorkomplementarität; Multiples Gleichgewicht; Economic development; Unemployment; Fiscal policy; Hysteresis
    Scope: Online Ressource, 39 p., text, ill
  4. Sunk cost hysteresis in Turkish manufacturing exports
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Head Office, Structural Economic Research Department, Ankara, Turkey

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    Series: Working paper / Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ; no: 21, 36 (December 2021)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Exports; Preisach method; Nonlinearity; Path-dependency
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Monetary policy in a model of growth
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

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    Series: International finance discussion papers ; number 1340 (March 2022)
    Subjects: Business cycles; Growth; Optimal monetary policy; Hysteresis; Scarring
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth
    Published: 31 March 2022
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    This paper studies monetary policy strategies under endogenous technology dynamics and low r ∗ . Endogenous growth strengthens the gains from make-up strategies relative to inflation targeting, especially if policy space is reduced. This result is... more

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    This paper studies monetary policy strategies under endogenous technology dynamics and low r ∗ . Endogenous growth strengthens the gains from make-up strategies relative to inflation targeting, especially if policy space is reduced. This result is due to the long-run non-neutrality of money and the hysteresis effects in TFP through which ELB episodes generate permanent scars on long-run aggregate supply. Make-up strategies not only foster the alignment of inflation with target but also support productivity-improving investment in R&D and technology adoption and hence the long-run trend path, provided that the inherent make-up element is sufficiently pronounced. Inflation is less responsive to monetary policy due to the interaction with productivity dynamics. As a result, additional stimulus is required at the ELB and the degree of subsequent overshooting is alleviated. Endogenous growth also generates novel monetary policy trade-offs, most notably credibility challenges, which can be mitigated by confining make-up elements to ELB episodes.

     

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    ISBN: 9789523234031
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/253691
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2022, 6
    Subjects: Make-up Strategies; ZLB; Endogenous TFP; Hysteresis; Cycle-Trend Interaction
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The scarring effects of deep contractions
    Published: 3 October 2022
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear... more

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    We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence following less severe contractions or large expansions. While scarring after financial crises is well known, it also occurred after the deep contractions of the 1970s and 1980s that followed energy price shocks and restrictive monetary policy to combat high inflation. These results are very robust and have important implications for policy making and macro modelling.

     

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    ISBN: 9789523234185
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265328
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2022, 12
    Subjects: Hysteresis; nonlinearity; financial crises; monetary policy; oil shocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper studies monetary policy strategies under endogenous technology dynamics and low r. Endogenous growth strengthens the gains from make-up strategies relative to inflation targeting, especially if policy space is reduced. This result is due... more

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    This paper studies monetary policy strategies under endogenous technology dynamics and low r. Endogenous growth strengthens the gains from make-up strategies relative to inflation targeting, especially if policy space is reduced. This result is due to the long-run non-neutrality of money and the hysteresis effects in TFP through which ELB episodes generate permanent scars on long-run aggregate supply. Make-up strategies not only foster the alignment of inflation with target but also support productivity-improving investment in R&D and technology adoption and hence the long-run trend path, provided that the inherent make-up element is sufficiently pronounced. Inflation is less responsive to monetary policy due to the interaction with productivity dynamics. As a result, additional stimulus is required at the ELB and the degree of subsequent overshooting is alleviated. Endogenous growth also generates novel monetary policy trade-offs, most notably credibility challenges, which can be mitigated by confining make-up elements to ELB episodes.

     

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    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289952996
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269121
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2714 (August 2022)
    Subjects: Make-up Strategies; ZLB; Endogenous TFP; Hysteresis; Cycle-Trend Interaction
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The scarring effects of deep contractions
    Published: October 2022
    Publisher:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Format: Online
    Series: BIS working papers ; no 1043
    Subjects: Hysteresis; nonlinearity; financial crises; monetary policy; oil shocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Causes and consequences of hysteresis
    aggregate demand, productivity and employment
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Maastricht

    In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogenous firms and workers. Building upon the model in Dosi et... more

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    In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogenous firms and workers. Building upon the model in Dosi et al. (2016, 2017), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers' skills and a state-dependent process of entry, studying their hysteretic impacts. Indeed, hysteresis is ubiquitous. However, this is not due to market imperfections, but rather to the very functioning of decentralised economies characterised by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns. So, contrary to the insider-outsider hypothesis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behaviour in aggregate unemployment. On the contrary, in line with the recent discussion in Ball et al. (2014), this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns, and thus declining aggregate demand, phenomena like lower investment and innovation rates, skills deterioration, and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long-run unemployment spells and lower output growth. In that, more rigid labour markets dampen hysteretic dynamics by supporting aggregate demand, thus making the economy more resilient.

     

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    hdl: 10419/157537
    Series: GLO discussion paper ; no. 64
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Aggregate Demand; Multiple Equilibria; Skills Deterioration; Market Entry; Agent-Based Model
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Macroeconomic policy, product market competition, and growth
    the intangible investment channel
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While there is growing evidence of persistent or even permanent output losses from financial crises, the causes remain unclear. One candidate is intangible capital - a rising driver of economic growth that, being non-pledgeable as collateral, is... more

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    While there is growing evidence of persistent or even permanent output losses from financial crises, the causes remain unclear. One candidate is intangible capital - a rising driver of economic growth that, being non-pledgeable as collateral, is vulnerable to financial frictions. By sheltering intangible investment from financial shocks, counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy could strengthen longer-term growth, particularly so where strong product market competition prevents firms from self-financing their investments through rents. Using a rich cross-country firm-level dataset and exploiting heterogeneity in firm-level exposure to the sharp and unforeseen tightening of credit conditions around September 2008, we find strong support for these theoretical predictions. The quantitative implications are large, highlighting a powerful stabilizing role for macroeconomic policy through the intangible investment channel, and its complementarity with pro-competition product market deregulation

     

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  12. Estimating hysteresis effects
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Norges Bank, Oslo

    In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand shocks are found to be... more

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    In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand shocks are found to be quantitatively important in the US, in particular if the Great Recession is included in the sample. Demand-driven recessions lead to a permanent decline in employment while output per worker is largely unaffected. The negative impact of a permanent decline in investment (including R&D investment) on productivity is compensated by the fact that the least productive workers are disproportionately hit by the shock and exit the labor force.

     

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    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9788283791679
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 11250/2690092
    hdl: 10419/246120
    Series: Working paper / Norges Bank ; 2020, 13
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Structural Vector Autoregressions; Sign restrictions; Longrun restrictions; Productivity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Chronic excess capacity and unemployment hysteresis in EU countries
    a structural approach
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy

    We develop a structural method for identifying the unobservable rate of capacity utilization in 14 EU countries, by simultaneously estimating the coefficients of a production function, an investment function, a labor productivity function and an... more

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    We develop a structural method for identifying the unobservable rate of capacity utilization in 14 EU countries, by simultaneously estimating the coefficients of a production function, an investment function, a labor productivity function and an unemployment function. Our results provide evidence of chronic underutilization of productive capacity and hysteresis in unemployment, especially after the 2008' financial crisis. We show that our series of the rate of capacity utilization are significant predictors of capacity accumulation, productivity growth and unemployment rates. Moreover, they predict inflation as efficiently as the DG ECFIN series of capacity utilization and output gaps.

     

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    hdl: 10419/238302
    Series: Working paper / Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore ; n. 91 (October 2020)
    Subjects: Capacity utilization; Potential GDP; Output gap; Hysteresis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Searching for hysteresis
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Universität Bern, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Bern, Switzerland

    Taking as data-generation process a standard DSGE model, we show via Monte Carlo that reliably detecting hysteresis, defined as the presence of aggregate demand shocks with a permanent impact on output, is a significant challenge, as model-consistent... more

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    Taking as data-generation process a standard DSGE model, we show via Monte Carlo that reliably detecting hysteresis, defined as the presence of aggregate demand shocks with a permanent impact on output, is a significant challenge, as model-consistent identification schemes (i) spuriously detect it with non-negligible probability when in fact the data-generation process features none, and (ii) have a low power to discriminate between alternative extents of hysteresis. We propose a simple approach to test for the presence of hysteresis, and to estimate its extent, based on the notion of simulating specific statistics (e.g., the fraction of frequency-zero variance of GDP due to hysteresis shocks) conditional on alternative values of hysteresis we impose upon the VAR, and then comparing the resulting Monte Carlo distributions to the corresponding distributions computed based on the actual data via the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Based on two alternative identification schemes, evidence suggests that post-WWII U.S. data are compatible with the notion of no hysteresis, although the most plausible estimate points towards a modest extent, equal to 7 per cent of the frequency-zero variance of GDP.

     

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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/242858
    Series: Discussion papers / Universität Bern, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Economics ; 21, 07 (May, 2021)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; permanent shocks; long-run restrictions; sign restrictions; Bayesian methods; Kullback-Leibler divergence
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Relative prices and hysteresis: evidence from US manufacturing
    Published: April 2020
    Publisher:  CEFIR, Moscow

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    Series: NES working paper series ; no. 263
    Subjects: Exchange Rates; American Manufacturing; Hysteresis; Trade
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 101 Seiten)
  16. Hysteresis and full employment in a small open economy
    Published: May 7, 2021
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 46 (June 2021)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; open economy macroeconomics; monetary policy; fiscal policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Estimating hysteresis effects
    Published: 15 September 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP16558
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Structural vector autoregressions; Sign restrictions; Long-run restrictions; Employment; Labor productivity; Local projections
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Long-term unemployment, hysteresis and missing deflation
    reconsidering the New-Keynesian approach by means of an 'old' Phillips curve
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Series: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 880 (maggio 2022)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; long-term unemployment; NAIRU; conflict-claim inflation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Estimating hysteresis effects

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    Series: Documento de trabajo / FEDEA ; 2021, 11
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Structural vector autoregressions; Sign restrictions; Longrun restrictions; Employment; Labor productivity; Local projections
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Estimating hysteresis effects
    Published: August 20, 2021
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2021, 059
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Structural vector autoregressions; Sign restrictions; Long-run restrictions; Employment; Labor productivity; Local projections
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Endogenous technology, scarring and fiscal policy
    Published: 12 December 2022
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    This paper studies fiscal policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous technology growth in which scarring can occur endogenously through hysteresis effects in TFP. Both demand- and supply-driven recessions can weaken investment in R&D and... more

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    This paper studies fiscal policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous technology growth in which scarring can occur endogenously through hysteresis effects in TFP. Both demand- and supply-driven recessions can weaken investment in R&D and technology adoption, thus depressing the long-run trend. Fiscal policy has long-term effects under endogenous growth and the type of fiscal stimulus is decisive for the sign and magnitude of fiscal multipliers. Expansionary government spending boosts output transitorily but over time crowding out in technology-enhancing investment weakens the long-run trend. I introduce fiscal growth policies in this environment which in the short run raise aggregate demand and simultaneously support growth-enhancing investment and thus the long-run trend, generating a positive trend multiplier. Multipliers of fiscal growth policies can be sizeable, above all when targeted to R&D, which is characterized by fiscal multipliers greater than unity. The importance of monetary-fiscal interaction is amplified due to long-run non-neutrality of monetary policy.

     

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    ISBN: 9789523234260
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267168
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2022, 13
    Subjects: Fiscal Multiplier; Hysteresis; Endogenous Growth; Inflation; Monetary-Fiscal Interaction
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. One crisis after another: a dynamic unemployment persistence analysis for the GIPS Countries
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Economic Research Center, [Ankara]

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    Series: ERC working papers in economics ; 21, 02 (April 2021)
    Subjects: Unemployment; Persistence; Hysteresis; Structural changes; GIPS countries
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Hysteresis from monetary policy mistakes: how bad could it be?
    Published: diciembre de 2023
    Publisher:  Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 1992/73159
    Series: Array ; 2023, 40
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Monetary Policy; Endogenous Growth; Productivity; Firms’Exit; Unemployment
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Broadening the application of hysteresis in economics
    institutions, policy lock-in, psychology, identity, and ideas
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    This paper argues for broadening the application of hysteresis to institutions, policy lockin, psychology, identity, and economic ideas. Hysteresis is an element of historical processes, and the real world is historical. That explains why hysteresis... more

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    DSP 200
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    This paper argues for broadening the application of hysteresis to institutions, policy lockin, psychology, identity, and economic ideas. Hysteresis is an element of historical processes, and the real world is historical. That explains why hysteresis is pervasive and important. Hysteresis should be a fundamental building block of political economy. Expanding its application in economics is both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that it provides a means for incorporating political, sociological, and psychological forces which economics tends to neglect. That will enrich economics and can also provide a mutually enriching bridge to other social sciences. The challenge is introducing such concerns raises questions about the character of economics' knowledge claims, which is likely to trigger resistance from economists.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/274234
    Series: FMM working paper ; Nr. 92 (August 2023)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; institutions; policy lock-in; psychology; identity; ideas
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. How large are hysteresis effects?
    estimates from a Keynesian growth model
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DSP 200
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    This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy. Faster demand growth reduces slack and stimulates supply (and vice-versa). We estimate the model using simulated method of moments and find statistically significant and quantitatively important hysteresis effects: the semi-elasticity of productivity and labor supply to the unemployment rate are 0.73 and 0.26, respectively. For an economy with labor market slack, these estimates imply that supply growth could accommodate a one percentage point increase in the growth rate of demand with a reasonable 0.75 percentage point reduction in the long-run unemployment rate. Additionally, we show the model replicates major features of business cycles as well the response of the economy to autonomous demand shocks, providing further validation of this approach to understanding macroeconomic dynamics.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/274237
    Series: FMM working paper ; Nr. 89 (March 2023)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; Demand-Led Growth; Supermultiplier
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen