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  1. Enforcing public-private partnership contract
    how do fiscal institutions matter?
    Author: Nose, Manabu
    Published: October 15, 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased commitments in guarantees and... more

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    Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased commitments in guarantees and direct subsidies to promote PPPs, contractual disputes remain high with significant costs. This paper examines how fiscal institutions affect the selection of PPP contracts and the probability of contract disputes using about 6,000 PPP contract-level data. The analysis shows that larger government financing needs, lower budget transparency and bureaucratic efficiency are associated with higher probability for governments to offer guarantees. Propensity score matching results show that disputes are more common for guaranteed contracts due to adverse selection and contingent liability effects. PPP management quality and budget transparency are found to be key determinants for a longer survival of PPPs

     
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  2. Ghana
    2017 Article IV consultation, fourth review under the extended credit facility arrangement, request for waiver for nonobservance of performance criteria, and request for extension and rephasing of the arrangement : press release; staff report; staff supplement; and statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ghana has shown mixed macroeconomic performance in recent years, with significant shocks being amplified by policy slippages and resulting external and domestic imbalances. Growth in 2016 was 3.5... more

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    This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ghana has shown mixed macroeconomic performance in recent years, with significant shocks being amplified by policy slippages and resulting external and domestic imbalances. Growth in 2016 was 3.5 percent, the lowest level in two decades. A recovery of growth is expected in 2017-18, owing to an increase in oil production, declining inflation, and lower imbalances with the right policy implementation. Inflation has continued to decline and the exchange rate has been broadly stable. The external position has continued to improve, supported by strong foreign investors' participation in the domestic debt market. Over the medium term, both the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit are projected to decline gradually

     
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  3. Kingdom of Swaziland
    2017 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Swaziland
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic conditions have recently deteriorated in Swaziland. In 2016, two shocks-a prolonged drought and a sharp decline in South African Customs Union (SACU) receipts-severely hit the... more

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    This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic conditions have recently deteriorated in Swaziland. In 2016, two shocks-a prolonged drought and a sharp decline in South African Customs Union (SACU) receipts-severely hit the economy, while an expansionary fiscal policy worsened fiscal and external balances. Growth in 2016 stagnated, as agricultural productions declined, and headline inflation increased sharply, mostly owing to rising food prices. Fiscal policy remains on an expansionary course, while the monetary stance has tightened. Despite a pickup in SACU revenue, the 2017 budget envisages a continuation of large fiscal deficits, and further increase in public debt

     
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  4. Uganda
    technical assistance report : drafting the public finance management regulations
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report proposes draft regulations to address issues in the provisions of the Public Finance Management Bill 2012. The draft regulations propose a virement regime which serves to protect the composition of the budget, in... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report proposes draft regulations to address issues in the provisions of the Public Finance Management Bill 2012. The draft regulations propose a virement regime which serves to protect the composition of the budget, in particular prevention of virement between development and recurrent spending which will be particularly important in light of the new fiscal environment. It is also proposed to further strengthen the expenditure controls through a requirement to regularize excess expenditures through the contingencies fund and requiring reporting of outstanding payments

     
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  5. Uganda
    technical assistance report : enhancing the performance of public investment management
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for enhancing the performance of public investment management in Uganda. The current public investment program (PIP) is overextended and a stock-take is required (by September 2017) as the... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for enhancing the performance of public investment management in Uganda. The current public investment program (PIP) is overextended and a stock-take is required (by September 2017) as the basis for further decisions. Cabinet endorsement of important decisions on the PIP is needed to provide a framework for subsequent planning, budgeting and decision making by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED), the National Planning Authority (NPA), and Ministries, Departments, and Agencies. To inform the Cabinet decision on the PIP, a comprehensive review of the PIP should be conducted each September/October jointly between the MoFPED, the NPA and the sectors concerned under the auspices of the Development Committee

     
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  6. Uganda
    technical assistance report : implementing the public financial management bill
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for implementing the Public Financial Management (PFM) Bill in Uganda. The finalization of the PFM Bill has reached an advanced stage with Parliamentary approval expected in the coming... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for implementing the Public Financial Management (PFM) Bill in Uganda. The finalization of the PFM Bill has reached an advanced stage with Parliamentary approval expected in the coming months. The IMF mission strongly recommends that the petroleum revenue management provisions in the Bill are revisited. In particular this should include clearly defining the nature of the funds and its objectives. The reporting arrangements should also be clarified and the specialist audit arrangements specified. Finally, the Bill should be enhanced to ensure that investment risks are limited and to protect against its use as a development fund

     
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  7. Uganda
    technical assistance report : managing and preventing expenditure arrears
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendation for managing and preventing expenditure arrears in Uganda. There is need to reconcile the verified stock of arrears with those reported in the annual financial statements. The verification for... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendation for managing and preventing expenditure arrears in Uganda. There is need to reconcile the verified stock of arrears with those reported in the annual financial statements. The verification for Budgetary Central Government must be completed, and mechanisms for regular reporting and verification of arrears by local government and the broader public sector must be established. It is also recommended to develop and publish an arrears clearance strategy including prioritization criteria, liquidation policy and institutional responsibility for monitoring and clearance of arrears

     
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  8. Brazil
    technical assistance report : supporting implementation of the expenditure rule through public financial management reforms
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    Faced with significant economic and fiscal challenges, the Brazilian government is reforming its fiscal framework to promote fiscal sustainability and reduce debt. Since 2015, Brazil has struggled with its deepest economic recession in decades and... more

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    Faced with significant economic and fiscal challenges, the Brazilian government is reforming its fiscal framework to promote fiscal sustainability and reduce debt. Since 2015, Brazil has struggled with its deepest economic recession in decades and ongoing political tensions. The fiscal situation has deteriorated sharply with a significant drop in revenues and debt increasing above the emerging market average. Within the past year, the government has made significant progress in reforming its fiscal framework. In late 2016, a new expenditure rule was established and a new IFI was created. Reforms are also ongoing in several areas, including a new public financial management (PFM) law currently with the legislature

     
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  9. Uganda
    technical assistance report : report on government finance statistics
    Published: October 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics in accordance with the guidelines of... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics in accordance with the guidelines of Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001/14. The IMF mission, in collaboration with the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, the Bank of Uganda, and the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development, produced a new institutional table that can be further reviewed, adopted, and used as a standard for the entire government of Uganda in the production of statistics. The IMF mission recommends that the government of Uganda continue to disseminate government finance statistics to the IMF and the East African Community and start disseminating a broader range of public sector debt statistics through the World Bank

     
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  10. Zambia
    2017 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for Zambia
    Published: October 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the improved near-term outlook for the Zambian economy in recent months, driven by good rains and the rising world copper price. The economy was in near-crisis conditions from the fourth quarter of 2015... more

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    This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the improved near-term outlook for the Zambian economy in recent months, driven by good rains and the rising world copper price. The economy was in near-crisis conditions from the fourth quarter of 2015 through most of 2016, reflecting the impact of exogenous shocks and lax fiscal policy in the lead-up to general elections. The medium-term outlook for the economy is contingent on policies. Achieving sustained high and inclusive growth requires a stable macroeconomic environment as well as policies and reforms to increase productivity, enhance competitiveness, strengthen human capital and support financial inclusion for small and medium-scale enterprises

     
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  11. Mauritius
    technical assistance report : towards accrual accounting and the adoption of international standards
    Published: October 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations of the IMF mission to the authorities of Mauritius regarding implementation of an accrual accounting framework and the adoption of international standards. It is... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations of the IMF mission to the authorities of Mauritius regarding implementation of an accrual accounting framework and the adoption of international standards. It is recommended that the International Public Sector Accounting Standards be applied by all public sector entities unless the primary objective of the entity is return on investor equity. This will simplify the framework and the implementation effort and will lead to efficiencies in the preparation of consolidated financial statements. Moreover, the accrual financial statements should be compared and reconciled with budget and budgetary reports

     
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  12. Armenia
    technical assistance report : upgrading fiscal rules
    Published: October 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Armenia regarding design of fiscal rules and associated fiscal and institutional frameworks. Armenia has made... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Armenia regarding design of fiscal rules and associated fiscal and institutional frameworks. Armenia has made significant strides in enhancing macroeconomic stability over the past two decades. Although Armenia's public debt remains sustainable, a prolonged adjustment is needed to restore sizable fiscal buffers, warranting an upgrade of the fiscal rule framework. The existing debt-rule-based framework provides insufficient operating guidance to fiscal policy and is not flexible enough to deal with severe economic shocks. Mechanisms to deal with a potential breach of the 60 percent debt ceiling and the 50 percent debt brake are excessively restrictive and need to be overhauled

     
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  13. Ireland
    technical assistance report : public investment management assessment
    Published: November 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the results of the assessment of public investment management in Ireland. To support Ireland's economic and social development to 2040, the government is preparing a new spatial planning strategy, dubbed the... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the results of the assessment of public investment management in Ireland. To support Ireland's economic and social development to 2040, the government is preparing a new spatial planning strategy, dubbed the National Planning Framework. This framework, and an associated 10-year capital plan-both of which will be released at the end of 2017-will support the government's efforts to redirect infrastructure investment to areas that cut across traditional departmental and sectoral boundaries. This new strategy strongly emphasizes the development of urban areas outside Dublin, including four new Metropolitan Areas. Ensuring that the various national, sectoral, regional, and local plans are aligned, integrated, and realistic is essential to delivering on these lofty expectations

     
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  14. Medium-term budget frameworks in selected Sub-Saharan African countries
    Author: Allen, Richard; Chaponda, Taz; Fisher, Lesley; Ray, Rohini
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six... more

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    More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six countries-- Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. It assesses the effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving improved fiscal discipline, resource allocation, and certainty of funding, as well as wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment. In most countries, early successes were not sustained, and budgetary outcomes did not improve, partly for technical reasons, such as poor data and inadequate forecasting methodologies, but also because the reforms were largely supply driven. The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases. To make the transition from one phase to the next, developing countries should focus on building their capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis, and in improving the credibility of the annual budget process

     
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  15. Australia's fiscal framework
    revisiting options for a fiscal anchor
    Author: Dizioli, Allan; Karam, Philippe; Muir, Dirk; Steinlein, Siegfried
    Published: December 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end of the mining investment boom. The... more

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    This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end of the mining investment boom. The IMF's G20MOD model is used to compare the budget balance anchor with a long-term debt anchor. Using model simulations evaluated against objective macro stabilization-debt control criteria under three likely scenarios for the Australian economy, the latter is found to perform at least as well as the former. The paper also considers the operationalization of a long-term debt anchor utilizing a combination of fiscal rules which includes expenditure restrictions and a flexible time horizon for convergence, aiming at encouraging countercyclical fiscal policy and minimizing the cost in terms of real GDP foregone in the medium term under fiscal consolidation

     
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  16. Islamic Republic of Iran
    2018 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Iran
    Published: March 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Iran is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2017/18. In the first half of 2017/18, recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and a... more

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    This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Iran is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2017/18. In the first half of 2017/18, recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and a recovery in construction and services activity. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in the first half of 2017/18, but remained particularly high for youth and women. Inflation averaged 9.9 percent during the first 11 months of 2017/18 aided by moderation in food prices and stable administered prices. Real GDP growth is expected to ease to 4 percent in 2018/19 and is forecast to average 4.5 percent over the medium-term

     
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  17. Second-generation fiscal rules
    balancing simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability
    Author: Eyraud, Luc; Debrun, Xavier; Andrew, Hodge; Lledó, Victor D.; Pattillo, Catherine A.
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term... more

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    Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog

     
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  18. Mali
    technical assistance report : public investment management assessment
    Published: May 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report assesses the state of public investment management in Mali. The institutional strength of the public investment management framework is good compared with peer countries. The assessment of the 15 institutions (or... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report assesses the state of public investment management in Mali. The institutional strength of the public investment management framework is good compared with peer countries. The assessment of the 15 institutions (or components) of the framework pictures generally good scores, at or above average levels for low-income countries in almost all components. There are four exceptions: (1) the institutional framework for public private partnerships is incomplete; (2) there is scope for improvement in accounting and valuation of assets; (3) availability of financing for investments suffers from poor commitment management and cash flow projections; and (4) project assessment is not systematic or comprehensive. These deviations from good practices are being corrected with the implementation of the new legal framework

     
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  19. Financial crises, macroeconomic shocks, and the government balance sheet
    a panel analysis
    Author: Ruzzante, Matteo
    Published: April 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Government financial assets are increasingly recognized as playing an important role in assessing fiscal sustainability. However, very little research has been done on the dynamics of government financial assets compared to liabilities. In this... more

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    Government financial assets are increasingly recognized as playing an important role in assessing fiscal sustainability. However, very little research has been done on the dynamics of government financial assets compared to liabilities. In this paper, we investigate the impact of recent financial crises and macroeconomic shocks on government balance sheets, decomposing the separate effects on financial assets and liabilities. Using quarterly Government Finance Statistics (GFS) data, we analyze a panel of 27 countries over the period 1999Q1-2017Q1 through fixed effects and panel VAR techniques. Financial crises are shown to deteriorate the net financial worth of governments, but no significant impact is found on assets suggesting that they are not being used as fiscal buffers in bad times. On the contrary, countries that suffered both financial and banking crises experienced an 'artificial' increase of their asset position through bank bailouts. Macroeconomic shock analyses reveal that government balance sheet items are countercyclical, but important asymmetries are found in their dynamics

     
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  20. Commodity-based sovereign wealth funds
    managing financial flows in the context of the sovereign balance sheet
    Author: Al-Hassan, Abdullah; Brake, Sue; Papaioannou, Michael G.; Skancke, Martin
    Published: February 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Commodity-based sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been at a crossroads following the recent fall in commodity prices. This paper provides a framework for commodity-based SWF management, focusing on stabilization and savings funds, by (i) examining... more

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    Commodity-based sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been at a crossroads following the recent fall in commodity prices. This paper provides a framework for commodity-based SWF management, focusing on stabilization and savings funds, by (i) examining macrofiscal linkages for SWFs; (ii) presenting an integrated sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approach to SWF management; and (iii) applying this framework to a scenario where assets are being accumulated and to a scenario where the SWF is drawn on to cover a financing gap due to lower commodity prices

     
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  21. Niger
    first review under the extended credit facility arrangement : press release and staff report
    Published: December 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses Niger's First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite security challenges and unfavorable commodity prices, economic performance of Niger has been satisfactory against the backdrop of a good crop season,... more

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    This paper discusses Niger's First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite security challenges and unfavorable commodity prices, economic performance of Niger has been satisfactory against the backdrop of a good crop season, with real GDP growing by 5 percent in 2016 while inflation remained contained at 0.2 percent. Growth is expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2017, mainly on the back of strengthening hydrocarbon and services sectors, and robust credit growth. The current account deficit will likely decline to 13.4 percent of GDP, reflecting rising exports of oil products, a rebound in uranium exports, and the winding down of import-intensive infrastructure projects

     
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  22. Republic of Madagascar
    second review under the extended credit facility arrangement and request for modification of performance criteria : press release; and staff report
    Published: December 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses Madagascar's Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Madagascar's implementation of its economic program supported by the ECF has remained... more

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    This paper discusses Madagascar's Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Madagascar's implementation of its economic program supported by the ECF has remained strong. All quantitative PCs and indicative targets were met at end-June 2017, and the program's structural agenda is also advancing. The gradual economic recovery has continued, with solid growth and continued macroeconomic stability despite the drought and cyclone that affected Madagascar in early 2017. Fiscal performance has been roughly as planned, with strong revenue performance offsetting some unexpected spending pressures in 2017

     
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  23. Jordan
    technical assistance report : public investment management assessment (PIMA)
    Published: December 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations given by the IMF mission on improving the public investment management in Jordan. Jordan's public finances have deteriorated since the mid-2000s, resulting in a significant reduction in... more

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    This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations given by the IMF mission on improving the public investment management in Jordan. Jordan's public finances have deteriorated since the mid-2000s, resulting in a significant reduction in public investment. In response to several negative external shocks, notably the Iraq and Syria crises and the 2008 global financial crisis, the government has reduced public investment and stepped up the use of public-private partnerships (PPPs). It is recommended to improve the quality of strategic planning by clarifying roles and responsibilities, enhancing coordination mechanisms between the institutions involved, and ensuring that strategic projects go through the Executive Development Plan cycle. The oversight and disclosure practices of PPPs should also be strengthened

     
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  24. Senegal
    fifth review under the policy support instrument and request for modification of assessment criterion : press release; staff report
    Published: January 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses Senegal's Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criterion. Senegal's macroeconomic situation is stable. Growth is expected to exceed 6 percent in 2017 for the third year in a... more

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    This paper discusses Senegal's Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criterion. Senegal's macroeconomic situation is stable. Growth is expected to exceed 6 percent in 2017 for the third year in a row, while inflation remains low. The fiscal deficit has been declining progressively in recent years and is projected to reach 3.7 percent of GDP in 2017. The current account deficit is projected to increase to 7.8 percent of GDP in 2017 owing to higher oil prices and slightly slower export growth. The outlook for the Senegalese economy remains on the whole positive. Senegal needs to continue implementing its structural reform program to maintain high growth rates of recent years

     
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  25. Cameroon
    first review under the extended credit facility arrangement, requests for waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion and modification of performance criteria : press release, staff report, supplementary information, and statement by the Executive Director for Cameroon
    Published: January 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses Cameroon's First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion (PC) and Modification of PCs. Cameroon's performance under the three-year ECF-supported... more

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    This paper discusses Cameroon's First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion (PC) and Modification of PCs. Cameroon's performance under the three-year ECF-supported program approved in June has been satisfactory, with the fiscal and external adjustments contributing to the rebuilding of buffers. Growth in 2017-18 is expected to be somewhat weaker than anticipated in the program, declining to 3.7 percent in 2017 owing to lower oil production and tepid demand, with a recovery to 4.2 percent in 2018. The medium-term outlook remains positive, boosted by the coming on stream of large energy and transport infrastructure projects

     
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