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  1. An analysis of OPEC’s strategic actions, US shale growth and the 2014 oil price crash
    Author: Behar, Alberto; Ritz, Robert A.
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output

     
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  2. An analysis of OPEC’s strategic actions, US shale growth and the 2014 oil price crash
    Author: Behar, Alberto; Ritz, Robert A.
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil... more

    Access:
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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 301 (2016,131)
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    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
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    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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